Industrials businesses quietly power the physical things we depend on, from cars and homes to e-commerce infrastructure. They are also bound to benefit from a friendlier regulatory environment with the Trump administration, and this excitement has led to a six-month gain of 23.9% for the sector - higher than the S&P 500’s 15.7% return.
Regardless of these results, investors should tread carefully. The diversity of companies in this space means that not all are created equal or well-positioned for the inescapable downturn. Taking that into account, here are three industrials stocks best left ignored.
Greenbrier (GBX)
Market Cap: $1.43 billion
Having designed the industry’s first double-decker railcar in the 1980s, Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX) supplies the freight rail transportation industry with railcars and related services.
Why Does GBX Fall Short?
- Products and services are facing significant end-market challenges during this cycle as sales have declined by 4.5% annually over the last two years
- Gross margin of 13.5% reflects its high production costs
- Cash-burning history makes us doubt the long-term viability of its business model
At $46.46 per share, Greenbrier trades at 4.9x forward EV-to-EBITDA. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than GBX.
Ducommun (DCO)
Market Cap: $1.36 billion
California’s oldest company, Ducommun (NYSE: DCO) is a provider of engineering and manufacturing services for high-performance products primarily within the aerospace and defense industries.
Why Do We Think Twice About DCO?
- New orders were hard to come by as its average backlog growth of 3.8% over the past two years underwhelmed
- Low free cash flow margin of 1.4% for the last five years gives it little breathing room, constraining its ability to self-fund growth or return capital to shareholders
- Below-average returns on capital indicate management struggled to find compelling investment opportunities
Ducommun’s stock price of $91.35 implies a valuation ratio of 22.5x forward P/E. If you’re considering DCO for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
Kennametal (KMT)
Market Cap: $1.63 billion
Involved in manufacturing hard tips of anti-tank projectiles in World War II, Kennametal (NYSE: KMT) is a provider of industrial materials and tools for various sectors.
Why Do We Think KMT Will Underperform?
- Core business is underperforming as its organic revenue has disappointed over the past two years, suggesting it might need acquisitions to stimulate growth
- Demand will likely be soft over the next 12 months as Wall Street’s estimates imply tepid growth of 1.4%
- Earnings per share have contracted by 5.4% annually over the last two years, a headwind for returns as stock prices often echo long-term EPS performance
Kennametal is trading at $21.42 per share, or 14.6x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including KMT in your portfolio.
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