What Happened?
Shares of private equity firm Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) jumped 3.4% in the afternoon session after the company, along with the Qatar Investment Authority, entered into a binding agreement to acquire a 60% stake in several of German chemical company BASF's coatings businesses.
The transaction carried an enterprise value of €7.7 billion. The deal covered BASF's Automotive OEM Coatings, Automotive Refinish Coatings, and Surface Treatment businesses. As part of the agreement, BASF planned to reinvest in the coatings business, holding the remaining 40% equity stake. The deal, which remained subject to customary regulatory approvals, was expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
Contributing to the positive momentum, the major indices rebounded as signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China emerged over the weekend.
The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite jumped around 1.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.2%. This rebound follows a significant sell-off the previous trading day, which saw the Nasdaq plummet 3.6% and the S&P 500 sink 2.7% after threats of new tariffs heightened fears of a trade war. Investor sentiment improved after the U.S. President adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Beijing in a social media post. The shift in language helped calm market jitters and spurred a broad-based rally as investors welcomed the potential de-escalation of the trade dispute.
Is now the time to buy Carlyle? Access our full analysis report here.
What Is The Market Telling Us
Carlyle’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock dropped 2.7% on the news that investor uncertainty heightened by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. In its second week, the shutdown delayed the release of crucial economic data, including the September jobs report and weekly unemployment claims. This lack of fresh information complicates decision-making for both the Federal Reserve and investors, who rely on these metrics to gauge the economy's health. Without this data, assessing the path of inflation and the labor market becomes more challenging, leading to a cautious sentiment. Major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all retreated as market participants reassessed their positions amid the data vacuum and awaited more clarity. In addition, Jamie Dimon raised concerns about a market correction. He added, "I would give it a higher probability than I think is probably priced in the market and by others, so if the market is pricing in 10%, I would ... say it's more like 30%." Dimon's remarks are closely watched given his influence as head of one of the nation's largest banks.
Carlyle is up 14.9% since the beginning of the year, but at $58.30 per share, it is still trading 15.9% below its 52-week high of $69.35 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Carlyle’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,178.
Today’s young investors won’t have read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.
