This is a rush transcript of "Special Report with Bret Baier" on October 5, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
BAIER: Crime is a big topic in a lot of different races across the country as balance of power here in Washington hangs in the balance with the midterms. The FBI crime data report out, murder rates up 4.3 percent year over year, murder rates from 2019 to 2020 up 29.4 percent. Robbery down. But these numbers do not include numbers from New York or L.A., which significantly could increase those.
If you look at the FOX News polls, voters extremely or very concerned about higher crime rates, 79 percent. Oops, that's the issue that GOP handled better, crime plus 13. Next one is extremely or very concerned about, 79 percent. It's amazing how I knew that was coming.
Let's bring in our panel, Ben Domenech, editor at large of "The Spectator," host of "The Ben Domenech Podcast" on FOX News Radio, Jeff Mason, White House correspondent for Reuters, and Mollie Hemingway, editor in chief, there she is, at "The Federalist." Mollie, it seems like more races, at least on the Republican side, are really focusing in on this in their ads and their messaging.
MOLLIE HEMINGWAY, EDITOR IN CHIEF, "THE FEDERALIST": Right, we talk about all the other issues, the border, economy, inflation, energy. But it's really crime that threatens to bury Democrats in a month here. It is an issue that is pervasive. It hits people across the country. We all, we saw the members that these murder rates were up this year over last, but it's really that 2020 figure that is so staggering, that 30 percent increase in murder. And we all know what was happening that year. We all know that this was about some radical policies, whether it was the race riots or whether it was defunding the police or having prosecutors who refuse to prosecute crime. So it's really tied with the Democrat Party, this crime issue, in a way that's going to be very hard for them.
BAIER: Jeff, there are some candidates, Democrats who have gotten their head around this, for example, Val Demings down in Florida who is a former police chief of Orlando really is attacking this issue on crime. But some Democrats seem like they are in a vulnerable position partywide on this issue.
JEFF MASON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, "REUTERS": I think that's true. I think it is a vulnerability for Democrats, at least in part because of some of what Mollie said with regard to efforts to defund the police. I do think it's important to note, though, on a presidential level that has not been President Biden's policy, and that is not something that he advocated for as a candidate and isn't now. And I would suspect that if someone from the White House were sitting here, they would argue that Republicans also did not support the money that was put in the American Rescue Plan at the beginning of Biden's term, and they have tried to use that against Republicans. But the counterargument, of course, has been seeing these numbers go up, and it is something that traditionally Republicans are stronger on with the electorate.
BAIER: Because you feel it. You feel, it's the insecurity. If you feel vulnerable at home, that translates.
BEN DOMENECH, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: There's a very interesting report out from the Manhattan Institute that looks at the level of increased violent crime in cities across the country. And I think that for a lot of Republicans, what they are seeing is suburban voter, the person who is adjacent to this kind of crime reacting to it, and reacting to it vociferously because they see Democrats on a local level and on a state level really not taking the kind of steps that they need to to push back against this increase of violent crime that seems random, it seems to happen in broad daylight, it seems to happen without real ramifications for the people who precipitate it. And, frankly that is all hurting Democrats in a very difficult time for them when they don't know how to navigate this new progressive wing that they have that still is, even if they won't admit it, invested in the idea of defunding the police.
BAIER: Because it's not only defunding the police or getting police departments up, Mollie. It's also the prosecution and what you are willing to go after these criminals and try to put them behind bars.
HEMINGWAY: In fact, that has been a huge thing in cities across the country. There was a concerted effort to put into power district attorneys who would not prosecute violent crime in the same way that it had been prosecuted. And so we have these huge upticks in some of these violent crimes. And they are happening in areas that can't really afford to have huge upticks, and it's spilling out into other areas as well. So it's a very difficult thing to avoid.
BAIER: I want to turn topics real quick to gas prices and where this stands with the OPEC Plus today. Jeff, that was a blow for this administration. It clearly by their answers, they were not pleased with this decision. How do you think it affects things as we head to November?
MASON: Well, it could very well lead to an increase in gasoline prices, and that's exactly the opposite of what the Democrats need and of what President Biden wants to see. And it's also the opposite of what he was hoping to achieve with his trip to Saudi Arabia earlier this year in the summer. At that point they were advocating exactly them saying the opposite three times now, but that's because that's what it is. And it didn't pan out for President Biden, and this is a real blow to him politically and for the economy as well.
HEMINGWAY: And it's not just that he wanted more of these barrels and he's not getting them. Also, one of his signature policies right out of the gate was to restrict American oil production, and boy, would that be helpful right now.
BAIER: And now there is this story in "The Wall Street Journal," and we haven't confirmed it independently that the sanctions are going to be lifted on Venezuela to allow Chevron to pump oil from Venezuela, which just seems like it fits into this whole --
BAIER: How quickly the White House went from being in a relationship with gas prices to it's complicated. And this is one of the things that I think that we are going to see them try to manage over the coming month, but I don't think they're going to be able to do so successfully. And I think voters are going to hold them accountable for the ramifications of their policies.
BAIER: So the question, though, is this baked in the cake, Jeff? Gas prices, crime, is it already baked in less than five weeks?
MASON: I say over and over on this program things can change, and we have seen a lot of change just in the last few weeks with Republicans now seeming to get a little bit of an advantage. They have got four or five more weeks.
DOMENECH: Fundamentals, Jeff. Fundamentals reassert themselves.
MASON: Democrats could get some of that back, or not. But the economy piece, which is what voters really, really look at when they go to the polls, that's not going to change a lot in the next month.
BAIER: We're looking at some specifics. Up next with the panel, some of the top midterm election races for governor coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is there any scenario under which you would concede that you lost publicly in 2018.
STACEY ABRAMS, (D) GEORGIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I have never denied the outcome.
This is not a speech of concession, because concession means to acknowledge an action is right, true, or proper. As a woman of conscience and faith, I cannot concede that.
It was not a free and fair election.
He won under the rules of the game at the time, but the game was rigged against the voters of Georgia.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BAIER: Stacey Abrams, Democratic candidate for governor in Georgia this week, and then some videotape that we do still keep and talking about the election that she lost in Georgia. Meantime, that race against incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, there you see Kemp up in the latest average of polls, and our power rankings have this a lean Republican. There you can see kind of the pinkish red, the yellow are the toss-up in the middle there. You can check that out on FOXnews.com/Politics.
We're back with the panel. Each of you chose a governor's race around the country. Ben, we will start with you.
DOMENECH: I chose Arizona because I think it's a fascinating election for a lot of different reasons. I think Kari Lake, an outsider by every definition, is actually likelier to win this fall than Blake Masters potentially when it comes to the Senate race. She is up against Katie Hobbs who has been avoiding to this point any kind of debate with the assumption that she was running ahead based on her past experience as a statewide elected candidate. I don't think that's true anymore. And I think that Hobbs actually should debate Lake if she has any kind of hope of having any kind of momentum going into November. Lake is a very compelling and charismatic candidate, and I believe will probably end up winning.
BAIER: I should say, behind the scenes here, a lot of these candidates are not doing debates. And there have been a lot of negotiations with a lot of networks, including our own, to try to get debates or town halls. And there's a lot of reluctance out there, especially from leaders.
DOMENECH: They don't want to risk it.
BAIER: Yes, which is interesting.
All right, your race?
HEMINGWAY: I chose Oregon. It's an interesting state because it should be just reliably Democrat. It's a sapphire blue state. And yet the Republican has a chance of winning this race, in fact, she is ahead, over the Democrat because of this spoiler independent who is backed by Phil Knight, which is an indication that businesses feel that Oregon has gone too far left in making it almost hostile for businesses to operate there, and that the soft on crime policies that the Democrat candidate supports, the drug friendly policies that she supports, are a problem for the state. But this also shows that crime is one of those issues that mean that a very solid Democrat state might not be Democrat for governor.
BAIER: Yes. You chose Wisconsin?
MASON: I chose Wisconsin.
BAIER: So let me play this ad, because you get a flavor of where the two sides are going. These are two different ads by the current incumbent Governor Evers and his opponent Michels.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A 12-year-old girl can't legally drive a car. At 12 she can't even vote. But if this little girl were tragically raped or a victim of incest and became pregnant, radical Tim Michels would force her to deliver the baby.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No one expects to see me at their doorstep. But it's happening more because of Tony Evers.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Evers released hundreds of violent criminals from prison.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Some of the worst offenders in Wisconsin history.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BAIER: And that gives you a flavor, really, for a lot of the races, but specifically this one.
MASON: It sure does, those two issues. And Mr. Michels has not moved to the center on the issue of abortion, which some candidates when they get to the general election will moderate their opinions a little bit to attract that wider piece of the electorate. He has not done that, and that so far does not seem to be hurting him in the polls between the two men are very, very tight. And I think those two issues that you just highlighted will be part of what drives voters from both sides, the left and the right, to vote on the Election Day.
BAIER: OK, I'm going to end where we begin, and that's in Georgia. Jonathan Turley had a piece about the change in the Georgia law, and just this week "Jim Eagle has landed. A federal court declares Georgia election law entirely constitutional. After being declared the new confederacy and subjected to a costly boycott, Georgians could be forgiven if they view Biden's claim," President Biden, "as more foul and fowl. Given the exhausting media coverage and condemnations of the law, one would expect the legion of legal experts out in force on a judge upholding the allegedly modern Jim Crow law. Instead, it's been crickets, almost as if their earlier coverage was knowingly exaggerated for public consumption," basically more people could be seen voting the last time.
DOMENECH: You are going to have incredible turnout, and it's going to be counted, and it's going to work. And it's not going to be a Jim Eagle situation.
BAIER: All right, panel, thank you.
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