Trimble’s fourth quarter results reflected a mixed environment, with the company surpassing Wall Street’s expectations for both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share despite a modest year-on-year decline in overall sales. Management pointed to the strength of recurring revenue streams—now representing nearly two-thirds of its business—as a key driver, particularly in the AECO (architecture, engineering, construction, and operations) and Field Systems segments. CEO Robert Painter highlighted the company’s “compounding returns” from its Connect & Scale platform strategy, emphasizing the expansion of software and services as well as growing adoption of AI-powered tools that automate customer workflows and unlock efficiencies across construction and logistics.
Is now the time to buy TRMB? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Trimble (TRMB) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $969.8 million vs analyst estimates of $947.8 million (1.4% year-on-year decline, 2.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1 vs analyst estimates of $0.96 (4.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $325 million vs analyst estimates of $309.5 million (33.5% margin, 5% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $905.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $896.4 million
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $3.52 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 1.8%
- Operating Margin: 22.3%, up from 17.6% in the same quarter last year
- Annual Recurring Revenue: $2.39 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.40 billion (6% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Organic Revenue rose 4% year on year (beat)
- Market Capitalization: $15.8 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Trimble’s Q4 Earnings Call
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Jason Celino (KeyBanc Capital Markets) asked about the sustainability of Field Systems ARR growth and whether slower growth was expected in 2026 due to tough comparisons or model transitions. CEO Robert Painter explained that while a natural deceleration is anticipated from earlier conversions, underlying strength remains and more than half of Field Systems revenue now comes from software and services.
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Joshua Tilton (Wolfe Research) pressed on the assumptions behind 2026 guidance, specifically macroeconomic impacts and sector trends. Painter replied that guidance assumes a stable macro environment, with continued strength in data center and infrastructure construction but muted expectations for U.S. federal transportation spending.
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Kristen Owen (Oppenheimer) inquired about the algorithm for ARR growth and the roles of price, cross-sell, and upsell. Painter clarified that net retention is primarily driven by cross-sell and upsell into the existing base, with pricing increases contributing at a low single-digit rate.
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Jonathan Ho (William Blair) questioned the convergence of ARR and revenue growth rates as the mix shifts to recurring revenue. Painter said AECO and Transportation have largely converged, while Field Systems will take longer due to ongoing software and hardware conversions.
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Guy Hardwick (Barclays) asked for specifics on AI’s contribution to ARR and operational efficiency. Painter noted that over $100 million in revenue is now associated with AI-powered features, with internal AI use driving measurable improvements in engineering and support productivity.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and breadth of agentic AI feature releases and subsequent customer adoption, (2) the success of international expansion and further cross-sell activity within the TC1 platform, and (3) ongoing improvements in operating margins as recurring revenue increases. Additional attention will be given to how rapidly Trimble’s consumption-based monetization models scale and the company’s ability to maintain growth in a mixed macroeconomic environment.
Trimble currently trades at $66.40, in line with $66.93 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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