e425
Filed by The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
and deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-12
under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Company: Hudson United Bancorp
Commission File No.: 001-08660
Attached is a transcript of The Toronto-Dominion Banks conference call for analysts and
stockholders on the announcement of earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005 on November 23,
2005.
These materials may be deemed to be solicitation material in respect of the proposed merger of TD
Banknorth and Hudson United Bancorp. In connection with the proposed transaction, a registration
statement on Form S-4 has been filed with the SEC. Shareholders of TD Banknorth and shareholders of
Hudson United are encouraged to read the registration statement and any other relevant documents
filed with the SEC, including the joint proxy statement/prospectus that is a part of the
registration statement, because they contain important information about the proposed merger. The
final joint proxy statement/prospectus will be mailed to shareholders of TD Banknorth and
shareholders of Hudson United. Investors and security holders will be able to obtain the documents
free of charge at the SECs website, www.sec.gov, from TD Banknorth, Two Portland Square, P.O. Box
9540, Portland, Maine 04112-9540, Attention: Investor Relations, or from Hudson United, 1000
MacArthur Boulevard, Mahwah, New Jersey 07430, Attention: Investor Relations.
TD Banknorth, Hudson United Bancorp and their respective directors and executive officers and other
members of management and employees may be deemed to participate in the solicitation of proxies in
respect of the proposed transactions. Information regarding TD Banknorths directors and executive
officers is available in TD Banknorths proxy statement for its 2005 annual meeting of
shareholders, which was filed with the SEC on April 20, 2005, and information regarding Hudson
Uniteds directors and executive officers is available in Hudson Uniteds proxy statement for its
2005 annual meeting of shareholders, which was filed with the SEC on March 23, 2005. Additional
information regarding the interests of such potential participants will be included in the joint
proxy statement/prospectus and the other relevant documents filed with the SEC when they become
available.
Q4 2005 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL
WENDNESDAY NOVEMBER 23, 2005
DISCLAIMER
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE TD BANKNORTHS
AND THE TORONTO-DOMINION BANKS (TD) CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN
ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING
OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALL. IN NO WAY DOES TD ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY
INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON TDS WEB SITE OR IN THIS
TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND TD BANKNORTHS AND TDS SEC
FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
From time to time, the Bank makes written and oral forward-looking statements, including in
this presentation, in other filings with Canadian regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC), and in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the safe
harbour provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Banks objectives and
targets and strategies to achieve them, the outlook for the Banks business lines, and the Banks
anticipated financial performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words
such as believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, plan, may and could. By
their very nature, these statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent
risks and uncertainties, general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ materially
from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could
cause such differences include: the credit, market, liquidity, interest rate, operational and other
risks discussed in the management discussion and analysis section in other regulatory filings made
in Canada and with the SEC, including the Banks 2004 Annual Report; general business and economic
conditions in Canada, the United States and other countries in which the Bank conducts business, as
well as the effect of changes in monetary policy in those jurisdictions and changes in the foreign
exchange rates for the currencies of those jurisdictions; the degree of competition in the markets
in which the Bank operates, both from established competitors and new entrants; legislative and
regulatory developments; the accuracy and completeness of information the Bank receives on
customers and counterparties; the timely development and introduction of new products and services
in receptive markets; expanding existing distribution channels; developing new distribution
channels and realizing increased revenue from these channels, including electronic commerce-based
efforts; the Banks ability to execute its growth and acquisition strategies including those of its
subsidiaries; changes in accounting policies and methods the Bank uses to report its financial
condition, including uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates;
the effect of applying future accounting changes; global capital market activity; consolidation in
the Canadian financial services sector; the Banks ability to attract and retain key executives;
reliance on third parties to provide components of the Banks business infrastructure;
technological changes; change in tax laws; unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings; continued
negative impact of the United States litigation environment; unexpected changes in consumer
spending and saving habits; the possible impact on the Banks businesses of international conflicts
and terrorism; acts of God, such as earthquakes; the effects of disease or illness on local,
national or international economies; the effects of disruptions to public infrastructure, such as
transportation, communications, power or water supply; and managements ability to anticipate and
manage the risks associated with these factors and execute the Banks strategies. A substantial
amount of the Banks business involves making loans or otherwise committing resources to specific
companies, industries or countries. Unforeseen events affecting such borrowers, industries or
countries could have a material adverse effect on the Banks financial results, businesses,
financial condition or liquidity. The preceding list is not exhaustive of all possible factors.
Other factors could also adversely affect the Banks results. For more information see the
discussion starting on page 37 of the 2004 Annual Report. All such factors should be considered
carefully when making decisions with respect to the Bank, and undue reliance should not be placed
on the Banks forward-looking statements. The Bank does not undertake to update any forward-looking
statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf.
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
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Ed Clark
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President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group |
Dan Marinangeli
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EVP, TD Bank Financial Group |
Bob Dorrance
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Chairman & CEO, TD Securities |
Tim Hockey
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Co-Chair, TD Canada Trust |
Bernie Dorval
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Co-Chair, TD Canada Trust |
Bill Hatanaka
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Chairman & CEO, TD Waterhouse |
Bharat Masarani
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Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Financial Group |
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
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Michael Goldberg
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Desjardins Securities Analyst |
Steve Cawley
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TD Newcrest Analyst |
Susan Cohen
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Dundee Securities Analyst |
Rob Wessel
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National Bank Financial Analyst |
Rafael Bello
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Citigroup Smith Barney Analyst |
Darko Mihelic
|
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Blackmont Capital Analyst |
PRESENTATION
Dan
Marinangeli EVP, TD Bank Financial Group
Okay, perhaps we could get started. Welcome to the TD Bank Financial Groups fourth-quarter 2005
investor presentation. My name is Dan Marinangeli, and until year end, I was the CFO of the bank.
This meeting is being web-cast in audio and video, as well as a telephone conference call.
With us today is Ed Clark, the banks CEO, who will give an overview of the quarter. Following Eds
remarks, I will cover our operating performance in more depth. After my presentation, we will
entertain questions from those present as well as pre-qualified analysts and investors on the
phones.
Also present today to answer your questions are Bob Dorrance, Chairman and CEO of TD Securities;
Tim Hockey and Bernie Dorval, Co-Chairs of TD Canada Trust; Bill Hatanaka, Chairman and CEO of TD
Waterhouse; and Bharat Masrani, Chief Risk Officer of the bank. Bill Ryan could not be with us
today, so we have Steve Boyle, TD Banknorth CFO, on the phone to answer any specific Banknorth
questions.
I would like to note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements and we draw your
attention to the slide concerning forward-looking statements at the beginning of our formal
presentation. Ed?
Ed
Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Thanks, Dan, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. As you know, Dan has served the
bank well as the Chief Financial Officer since 1999 through some pretty significant changes in the
bank and the regulatory environment in which we operate. He is now taking over the leadership
function of the corporate development area.
I want to take a moment to formally introduce our new CFO, Colleen Johnston. Colleen has been with
us since February 2004, and we are very pleased to have her in this key role. As Dan mentioned,
this is his last official presentation, so Dan, job well done. Terrific. Thank you. And Colleen,
welcome to your new job.
Before I comment on the year as a whole, let me make a few brief comments on the quarter. There
were a number of items of note leading to our adjusted $1.06 per share this quarter. Most of these
you have seen before special tax gains, AcG-13, preferred share, redemption premiums and
sectoral releases. These add up to a positive $0.17, which we exclude in getting to the $1.06.
There is also a tax charge of $0.19 per share related to a corporate reorganization at TD
Waterhouse USA. It will be more than offset by the gain from TD Waterhouse USA that we will realize
when we close the Ameritrade deal. Based on our current estimates, that will take you that Dans
going to take you through we expect we will have an item of note of about $1.65 next quarter.
The final item of note is a charge of $0.10 per share pertaining to our complex structured
derivative products businesses. In the past, we have discussed our desire to reposition our
structured product business outside of North America because there had been a permanent shift in
the economics. What was once a very profitable business isnt in our view such a good business
today. The reward for the risk isnt there.
In May, we announced our decision to wind down our structured credit product operations and to
immediately exit our structured equity operations. We have completed the positioning of the credit
portfolio into runoff and we have exited the structured equity products business. At the same time,
we began an assessment of whether structured interest rate derivatives was a business that we saw
as viable on a stand-alone basis.
We have now determined that we will not be able to sustain and grow this sub-business within our
risk and profitability parameters. So, consistent with our approach to deal decisively with risk
issues where we dont like the risk/reward tradeoff, weve decided to exit this business, and we
will be winding down our structured interest rate derivative operations.
The $0.10 includes a loss of $70 million after tax due to the sale of the remaining portion of the
structured equity portfolio and a reduction in the estimated value for the structured interest rate
portfolio. We have set in motion the reduction in employment levels these decisions entail. We
anticipate restructuring charges in the first quarter relating to people of approximately $25
million after tax.
With these moves, we will have completed a strategic repositioning of TD Securities. While it is
disappointing to take any losses in exiting a business, it is not in fact surprising that trading
losses occur as you try to wind down a complex business in a shortened timeframe. And losses of
course due to severance are inevitable.
To us, there is no question that this was the right business decision. We believe we will have a
stronger global derivatives business that will make a positive contribution to TD Securities
ability to generate 20%-plus rates of return, and indeed, it will do so with less risk. We remain
confident, indeed, that TD Securities can earn that rate of return with a risk profile that is
significantly less than that of our competitors.
I remain very pleased with how TD Securities has managed to dramatically reposition its risk
profile, grow its domestic franchise market share and earn throughout this very acceptable rates of
return. If you adjust TD Securities results for these restructuring charges, this quarters
results were in line with last quarter and the fourth quarter a year ago.
The other businesses came in much as we had expected. TD Banknorth continues to face a tough
banking environment, where growth in earnings is challenging. A flattening yield curve hurts
earnings directly, but also has produced a spread environment where loan margins are tight and
deposit growth difficult. Given this environment, were quite pleased with this quarter.
Our wealth management area had a spectacular quarter with earnings up 116% year over year. The
results were driven by strong performance in our discount brokerage in Canada and the United States
and continued growth in earnings on the advice side and the mutual fund business.
The personal and commercial segment delivered another great quarter, with a 16% increase in net
income year over year. As with last quarter, earnings growth is now broadly based, with insurance
revenues representing a lesser proportion of the growth.
If I step back and look at the year as a whole, I would have to say Im quite pleased. The
management team, and all the people who support them, has really done an excellent job.
They have delivered on our key milestones building the best service brand in Canada and proving
it by achieving the highest ratings for customer service excellence among the banks in Canada in
the external survey Synovate; building out our advice capability and establishing a leadership
position in mutual funds, winning mutual fund company of the year and adding 145 net new
client-facing advisors; proving out our super-grow strategy in our underpenetrated businesses;
growing our domestic wholesale franchise and taking the number one position in the value of equity
block trades; building a banking platform in the United States by acquiring Banknorth and the
pending Hudson United transaction, which continues to look very good indeed; and creating a top
three player in online brokerage with our pending combination of TD Waterhouse USA and Ameritrade.
There were, of course, disappointments. The Enron charge stands out, as does the restructuring
costs in TD Securities. These represent real economic costs to the bank. But if we focus on the
underlying performance of our business, this was an excellent year.
On an adjusted basis comparing 2005 to 2004, our overall earnings are up 15% and our earnings per
share are up 10%. Total shareholder return is up 17% and dividends are up 16%. Personal commercial
earnings are up 17% year over year, after a growth in earnings of 15% in 2003 and 17% in 2004.
Total wealth management earnings are up 23%. Combining domestic personal and commercial and
domestic wealth management, our overall Canadian retail franchise earnings exceeded $2 billion this
year, up 18% after increases of 15% in 2003 and 20% in 2004. This is truly a remarkable three-year
run in both absolute and relative terms.
For the first three quarters of its financial year, TD Banknorth has reported adjusted EPS up 8%
from last year. TD Securities earned a 17% rate of return on invested capital while absorbing the
restructuring charges that weve announced, and a 22% rate of return if you exclude the
restructuring charges.
Looking forward, Im feeling pretty optimistic. This doesnt mean that were not going to be
vigilant. We know a real economic downturn would hurt our commercial bank here and in the United
States. Capital market sentiment is clearly critical to TD Securities and to TD Ameritrade. And we
know how focused you have to remain to sustain this kind of level of high performance.
But when we look at some of the negatives, they also have some of the positive aspects. While TD
Banknorth faces a tough operating environment, that same environment is creating acquisition
opportunities. TD Securities is clearly well-positioned should the credit cycle turn or credit
spreads blow out.
And on the whole, what I worry about when the economic environment in Canada will shift, the
current outlook frankly is quite positive. Our domestic retail franchises have proven incredibly
resilient and able to generate consistent double-digit earnings growth. The online brokerage
business in Canada and the United States remains quite positive. And our wealth strategy is proving
out.
TD Banknorth is weathering the tough market conditions and TD Securities has repositioned itself
and gained market share in its core franchise. And perhaps most importantly, the management team
remains tightly aligned to simple strategies and focus on ensuring the proper execution.
Now over to Dan to take you through the results in detail.
Dan
Marinangeli EVP, TD Bank Financial Group
Slide 1-3
Forward-looking statement. As Ed said, we had a very strong fourth quarter. The reported earnings
per share on a fully diluted basis, $0.82 per share; on an adjusted diluted basis, $1.06 per share.
That is up from a comparably adjusted $0.91 last year, or up 16% from last year.
The segment net income before the amortization of intangibles, also very strong across the board.
The Canadian P&C banking business, 443 that is a new record and up 16% over last year. U.S.
P&C banking in Canadian dollars Canadian GAAP, $69 million virtually flat from the last
quarter, the third quarter of this year.
Wealth management at 136 million, the best result in wealth management for several years, up 116%
on a year-over-year basis and a large 37% over the third quarter.
Wholesale banking, $41 million cash earnings reported. That reflects the $74 million after-tax
restructuring and trading losses on the portfolios, as Ed mentioned.
For the full year, fiscal year 2005, EPS on a reported basis, fully diluted, 320. On an adjusted
cash basis, that is $4.14, and that is up from $3.77 last year or 10%. Segment net income before
the amortization of intangibles, personal and commercial banking in Canada, $1.7 billion, up 17%
over last year. U.S. personal and commercial, 158 million, with of course no comparable for last
year, as this is a new purchase for the bank.
Wealth management, 432, up $80 million from last year, or 23%. And wholesale banking, reflecting
the restructuring costs in the year, $422 million, down 166 million or down 28%.
Our capital ratios remain strong. Our Tier 1 ratio of 10.1%, that is pro forma 10.4%, if you take
into account the pref shares that we issued on November 1. And our tangible common equity is up
from 7% to 7.4% this quarter very strong ratios.
Slide 4
Looking at the components of the income statement, for the full year before the amortization of
intangibles in items of note, total revenue, $12 billion, up 12% over last year. Banknorth
represents about $1 billion of that increase, or about 3% of the amount if you take or the
growth would be 3% if you took the Banknorth amounts out. Likewise on expenses, which are up 11%,
Banknorth represents 8% of that. So on an adjusted basis without Banknorth included, both revenues
and expenses are up about 3%. And net income, as Ed mentioned, up 15% on a dollars basis and 10% on
an adjusted earnings per share basis.
Slide 5
Looking at the 2005 earnings sources, the component of our earnings by major business unit, you can
see that TD Canada Trust at 60% and TD Wealth Management at 11%. If you combine those, that
represents about 71% of the total combined earnings of the bank for the year. TD Waterhouse USA at
4%; TD Banknorth at 6%. If you add those two together, you end up with a 10% U.S. retail component.
Wealth management both in the U.S. and Canada would have represented 15% of our total earnings, and
TD Securities, 19%.
Slide 6
Looking at the earnings reconciliation and including the items of note, if you start with the
reported basis net income, it is $589 million, or $0.82 per share. You add back the amortization of
intangibles on an after-tax basis, which are $86 million or $0.12 per share, it gets you to a
starting position of $0.94 before the amortization of intangibles.
There are a number of items of note or items that we draw your attention to. The first one is in
the wholesale segment. It is related to the repositioning of the global structured products
portfolios. It includes the trading loss as well as a $6 million expense item relating to
severances. Trading loss was 107 million and the severance was 6 million, pretax or combined 74
million post-tax trade. That represents a $0.10 drag in the base earnings.
In that corporate segment, we have a number of items that are listed. The TD Waterhouse
reorganization tax charge was a large $138 million tax adjustment, which was in anticipation of the
combination of TD Waterhouse USA with Ameritrade, which we are expecting to close in the first
quarter.
There were reasons why we wanted to accelerate the reorganization of our U.S. business, including
taking some of the Canadian business out of that entity prior to the reorganization. And that
caused us to have to recognize a tax cost this quarter. As Ed mentioned, we will get a large tax or
a large gain a large dilution gain recorded in the first quarter when that deal closes, and I
will describe that in more depth in a few minutes.
We had specific noncore portfolio credit loss reversals this quarter 109 pretax, 60 post-tax or
$0.08 per share. Thats a plus item in the base case. We also had favorable tax items one of
which, the largest one, related to the recent court case, the Garr (ph) case that was heard by the
Supreme Court of Canada. That allowed us to reduce our tax expense this quarter by $68 million on a
post-tax basis. So again, a plus item in the base case.
We had preferred share redemption premium. We did redeem pref shares on October 31. There was a $13
million non-tax-deductible expense recorded, and that was $0.02 a share drag on the base case
earnings. And finally, a small item the AcG-13 impact was a plus item this quarter, an income
item, 10 million pretax, 7 million post-tax or a plus of $0.01 per share.
So if you felt inclined to adjust the cash earnings or the earnings before the amortization of
intangibles for these items, you would back them out and get an adjusted EPS before the
amortization of intangibles number of $1.06.
Slide 7
An update on the Ameritrade and Hudson transactions. In terms of TD Ameritrade, we are expecting
the closing of the combination of Ameritrade with TD Waterhouse USA towards the end of the first
quarter January 2006. We have revised the estimate of the dilution gain. This amount will now be in
the total amount, including the tax cost taken this quarter, will be a total amount of about US$900
million. So we will in fact recognize a gain in the first quarter of about US$1 billion.
That is better than we had anticipated when we first announced the deal. We announced the deal
it was $725 million. So this is about $175 million better than we thought. The major reason why it
is better is because the Ameritrade stock price has traded up since we announced the deal. The
higher the Ameritrade stock price immediately prior to close, and that would be X the dividend, the
$6.00 dividend, the larger the gain would be that we would recognize on the dilution of our
interest transferred into the combined entity. For every dollar of the Ameritrade stock price above
$16, which is the amount we used in this projection, that would represent about US$118 million
bigger gain on a post-tax basis.
TD Banknorth, the Hudson United Bancorp purchase, expecting closing about the same time as the
Ameritrade deal, about the end of our first quarter. We now have determined that there is likely to
be an expected dilution loss in this particular deal as we take our ownership stake in TD Banknorth
from the
55% that it was prior to the purchase to about 53.4% post-purchase. That reduction of ownership
stake results in a fairly small CAD$80 million loss.
If you net these two items together, the higher expected gain on Ameritrade, the loss that wasnt
anticipated on TD Banknorth, you end up you are ahead about US$100 million. And again, that will
be determined by the price of the Ameritrade stock price immediately prior to close.
Now, pro forma capital ratios, based on the figures in the top part of this slide our net
tangible common ratio, currently at 7.4, will go up to 7.8 on a pro forma basis, and our Tier 1
ratio also will go up to 10.8% as well.
Slide 8 & 9
Taking a look in more depth at our Canadian personal and commercial banking business, firstly
looking at revenues, which were 1.729 billion this quarter that is up 7% from the same quarter
last year. It is 2% from the previous quarter. Revenues up 7%. Basically volumes cause about 5% of
that 7% revenue boost, offset by about 2.5% relating to the reduction of margins over the year.
Insurance represents about 1.5% of the 7% revenue growth, and other fees and services represent
about 3% of the 7% growth factor.
Our volume growth was quite strong this quarter on a year-over-year basis business deposits in
particular very strong, up 12% year over year. Mortgages up 10% year over year. Business lending up
6% on a year-over-year basis. Credit cards up 9%. And personal deposits up 4%.
If you look at the total revenue numbers for the three years 2003 to 2005, on a full-year basis,
revenues were up 8% this year over last year. In turn, last year was up 6% over the previous year.
So were getting acceleration in revenue growth over the last two years.
Slide 10
Looking at the margins in TD Canada Trust, at the total level, the net interest margins on average
earning assets are up 4 basis points this quarter, reversing a slight declining trend over the past
several quarters. We saw stronger margins in our deposit business, but margins on loans were fairly
consistent over this period.
We did also in the total, but not in the individual margin lines, we did see an improvement in
mortgage prepayment costs. In the bank, mortgage breakage costs are usually a net cost to the bank.
So when people prepay their mortgages, we usually dont get as much interest rate differential
received as is the cost of breaking the hedges on the mortgages.
Since the rates started to increase this past quarter, we saw less activity in our customers
prepaying their mortgages, so we saw a commensurate reduction in the net cost of mortgage breakage
fees this quarter. So that helped the total margins, and in fact, we saw significantly higher net
mortgage breakage costs in the previous quarter. So really, I would suggest that if you kind of
average those two quarters out, that would have been a more comparable pure client margin.
So the 292 is low last quarter, and the 296 is slightly high this quarter. We would anticipate that
going into next year, the margins will be fairly stable and would anticipate that they would be in
the 293 or 295 basis point range for next year, assuming that the forward curves are realized.
For the full year, you can see that there is a fairly significant impact of reduced margins in 05.
For the full year, 296 was the margin versus 305 in 04, and a much higher 3.25% in 2003. It is
quite remarkable that TD Canada Trust has been able to earn such high rates of return in its growth
of earnings, given the underlying reduction in margins over this period.
Slide 11
Looking at PCL or projected credit losses, again, there is really not too much variation here from
previous quarters. We did get slightly lower recoveries this quarter, and we did see some volume
growth in our card business, and that tended to raise the PCL dollar amount slightly. We dont
detect any discernible trend in our PCL figures here. Delinquencies as a percentage of outstandings
were stable. So we again dont see any particular story in these figures.
On a full-year basis, it is interesting to note that in TD Canada Trust, the total PCL numbers 05
versus 04 were exactly the same. In fact, even more remarkable, the split between commercial and
personal are also exactly the same. So I would say that we have good stable credit quality by any
measure.
Slide 12
Looking at expenses and our efficiency ratio, we did get a good efficiency ratio this quarter
56%, down from 56.4 last quarter and 58.5 last year. Expenses were up 3% on a year-over-year basis.
This does give us a 4% growth gap in revenue over expenses, which is very good. We saw most of our
base expenses were increased due to about 700 more FTEs in the retail channels. 500 of those were
customer-facing. So again, were putting more people in front of customers. And there were 200 more
FTEs in Meloche Monnex this quarter over last year as well.
On a full-year basis, we saw a considerable decrease in the efficiency ratio. That is an
improvement in the efficiency ratio 05 versus 04, 56.3 over 58.7, a full 2.4% improvement in the
efficiency ratio. Quite remarkable.
Slide 13
So when you wrap all that together, you end up with record earnings $443 million this quarter.
Again, a record ROIC of 23.4% return on invested capital. That is the best ROIC since we purchased
Canada Trust in 2000. For the full-year amounts, you can see 1702 this year versus 1450 last year,
an increase of 17%, which is consistent with the increase in 04. So two years now, two full years
of 17% net income after-tax growth in TD Canada Trust.
Slide 14
Looking at some of the market share trends, I think an improving story here. When you look at total
personal deposits, on a year-over-year basis, we had a 26% improvement to 21.46%. Not the case in
total personal loans. We continue to see in fact, this quarter we saw an acceleration of market
share declines on a year-over-year basis 37 basis points a continuation of the factors that
we have been talking about now for several quarters.
On business loans, good news, though. We had very strong year-over-year growth in small business
loans 66 basis points improvement. Virtually all of that, in fact, was in the fourth quarter.
Also, on other business loans, 11 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Good gains for business
lending.
Slide 15
This is actually a two-year overview of the total results of TD Canada Trust, our personal and
commercial bank in Canada. The components of the income statement are listed here. I think it is
the 5% GAAP between revenue growth and expense growth, 8% revenue and 3% expense growth, is really
the driving force of increased results in this business.
Slide 16 & 17
So moving on to U.S. personal and commercial banking, again, we dont have much new to add in this
particular business line, as Banknorth did report its results to the investment community a few
months ago. We do pick up the Banknorth results on a one-month lag basis, so these reflect in our
Q4 reflect Banknorths third-quarter results ending September 30.
Results are fairly stable. There is a fairly significant foreign exchange impact from Q3 to Q4.
Keep in mind the U.S. dollar weakened considerably between Q3 and Q4, and that did have a fairly
large impact on the
components of the income statement. The results are, however, quite consistent with the underlying
results in TD Banknorth, which were flat from quarter to quarter their second quarter to their
third quarter.
There were a number of moving pieces in this result, though. There were some transfer pricing
differences here at the consolidated level. There were some adjustments on option expense
accounting here in Canada. There is no option expense accounting in the U.S. yet. There were some
adjustments to the underlying assumptions in the volatility of Banknorths stock price, which
reduced the option expense this quarter at the consolidated level. And Banknorth had a lower
restructuring cost, which they tend to exclude from their base case earnings, and we simply leave
those items included here.
When you look at the whole thing, the interesting part is that the exchange rate had about a $21
million impact on revenue and about a $9 million impact on expenses. On an after-tax basis, that
was about a $7 million effect. But there were other items that offset that foreign exchange impact.
So it kind of netted out to a flat result on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Return on invested
capital is up only slightly from the previous quarter. And margins did decline in the U.S., as
Banknorth did report.
Slide 18 & 19
Moving on to our wealth management business, as far as revenue goes, an excellent revenue result
this quarter $722 million, up 21% from 599 last year. That is very strong results in discount
brokerage in Canada, where we saw revenues up 29% on a year-over-year basis. In the U.S., we saw
revenues up about 18% on a year-over-year basis, and that was obviously depressed by the foreign
exchange effect. Our advice channels and our fund businesses here in Canada both saw 21% revenue
growths on a year-over-year basis. Very good results. Trades per day in the U.S. were up 24% versus
the same quarter last year. And in Canada, trades per day were up 29% versus the same quarter last
year.
Expenses before the amortization of intangibles $514 million, down from last quarter slightly,
and up slightly from last year. Again, the effect of foreign exchange on a year-over-year basis was
about $10 million. And we did have lower marketing expenses this quarter, about $9 million lower
than the last quarter. So those items had an effect on our expense levels.
Discount brokerage expenses in total were down quite substantially in that total. We saw discount
brokerage expenses down while full-service expenses were up as we continue to invest in our
full-service channels.
We also saw a significant increase in margin loans in Canada this quarter 29% on a
year-over-year basis and 16% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and that tended to improve NII as
well in Canada.
So on a growth GAAP basis for the full year, revenues up 6% from last year; expenses only up 2%,
and that is on top of a very good year last year, where revenues were up 11% and expenses only up
6%. So both years we saw a 5 and a 4% growth gap between revenues and expenses in this business.
Slide 20
On an earnings basis, we saw exceptionally strong results in our TD Waterhouse platform in the U.S.
$51 million, almost double from last quarter, and multiples of what we recorded in that first
quarter of last year.
I think it would be unfair for anybody to expect that these run rates would continue in TD
Waterhouse. First of all, TD Waterhouse wont exist as a separate entity too much longer, but even
if it did, I think it would be unreasonable to expect this to be a run rate.
We estimate that a 30 to US$35 million run rate would be more likely the case in this business. We
had lower-than-expected marketing expenses this quarter. They will, of course, increase in future
periods. And we had some other expense reductions this quarter coming off a fairly high expense
base in previous
quarters. So a number of things happened. All the stars were aligned in the case of TD Waterhouse
U.S., and I would not forecast that that would continue forever.
Our results in Canada also very strong up 89%, $85 million versus $45 million last year. Our
discount brokerage business in Canada had an exceptionally strong quarter net interest after tax
up 82% over last year. Our fund business is up about 28% on a profit basis. And our advice channels
went from a loss in the previous year to a small profit this current quarter. Very good results. On
a net income basis for the full year, $432 million, up 23% from last year, which in turn was up 45%
from the previous year. Exceptionally good growth in this business over a two-year period.
Slide 21
Market share is also a very good story. In terms of long-term mutual fund market share, we had an
increase of 121 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 21.04% on a banks basis. That is the
major banks. On an industry basis, up 74 basis points, 652 versus 578. Exceptionally strong
results.
Not as strong on money market funds. We did see a slight decline on a year-over-year basis 14
basis points on a banks basis, but up 13 basis points on a total industry basis. So were more or
less holding our own on the money market funds, but really booming ahead on the long-term funds,
which is where you like to have your growth if you had a choice.
Slide 22 & 23
Finally, wholesale banking. Total adjusted revenue this quarter, so this excludes the impact of the
portfolio losses and the well, just the portfolio losses in effect $478 million, about the
same as last quarter; about the same as last year, if you adjust for the $107 million portfolio
loss. The domestic businesses did very well, especially investment banking, institutional equities
and our fixed income business. Needless to say, our derivative businesses, especially outside of
Canada, did very poorly.
On a full-year basis, revenue adjusted for these items of note, 2.141 billion. Fairly flat to the
previous year in fact, fairly flat to the last two years. Expenses I would characterize as
similarly flat over the last several years. We did have a tick-up in expenses this quarter 326
million. That is up from last quarter and up from last year. That really is a result of timing
differences relating to the adjustment in incentive compensation expenses. You are always adjusting
your incentive compensation expenses to reflect the actual expected results for the year. And you
take those adjustments when you think you have a need to. Sometimes you take them sooner than
others. We took a significant adjustment in the fourth quarter of last year and again in the third
quarter of this year. So you see that those adjustments tended to skew the comparability somewhat
on the expense line. There were some higher-than-normal benefits expenses in the fourth quarter
this year as well, which we would not expect to continue.
Slide 24
In terms of corporate lending, our exposure over the last five quarters has been very stable. It is
currently $21.4 billion. 5.1 of that is non-investment-grade, with the rest being investment-grade.
Our credit protection balances have decreased slightly $3.2 billion this quarter. And as Ed
mentioned, there are no PCLs in the corporate lending portfolio, but we continue to expense or
amortize the cost of our credit protection, and this quarter it remained at $13 million.
Slide 25
On an adjusted earnings basis, earnings in TD Securities this quarter, $115 million. The adjusted
ROIC is 19.4%. If you dont make the adjustments, if you leave the earnings as reported, or $41
million, ROIC is about 7% this quarter. And the unadjusted ROIC for the year, even with all these
restructuring costs included, is 17%. On an adjusted basis, ROIC is over 22%.
The point here I think is that even when things arent going as well as youd like, the inherent
domestic franchises in TD Securities are very strong and can carry this business through with a
reasonably good return on invested capital.
Slide 26
Finally, our VAR usage this quarter, fairly stable. We did not exceed our VAR limits in terms of
trading losses, except when we booked those trading losses revolving around the portfolio losses in
terms of the businesses that were getting out of. Otherwise, we did not exceed the VAR limits in
any of the days.
So that ends the formal presentation. And were now happy to take questions.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
Unidentified Audience Member
Two questions, one for yourself and one for Tim. With respect to 2006, I did appreciate your
enthusiasm and optimism about it. But I wanted to see if I can circle back to talk about it a
little bit from a quantitative perspective and look about EPS growth and perhaps operating leverage
as well.
So I think when Dan had gone through the numbers and we looked at operating leverage, for the
entire bank, X onetime items and X Banknorth, revenue was up 3% and expenses were up 3%. So I just
wanted to circle back and talk about where that could be for 06?
Bob
Dorrance Chairman & CEO, TD Securities
To be perfectly honest, we dont tend to look at the total bank. I tend to think of it as what is
happening in each of the businesses, and when you do that kind of number, it has all these things
going through. So I think and we dont want to get into the earnings estimate business. But I
think what I am saying is that if we look at our retail franchise, I have been waiting for this
great downturn to occur, and Im still waiting.
And I keep waiting for TDCT to lose some momentum, and Im still waiting. So I think I reconciled
myself that it can continue for the moment TDCT at double digits, 10% kind of earnings growth,
but that still seems to be fundamentally what comes out of the operation. And the domestic wealth
business we believe ought to do better than TDCT because it is leveraging off the TDCT platform.
So I think the kind of anchor, were there. I think we look at TD Securities and I think what we
are seeing is when you cut right through it, the kind of numbers that weve always talked about for
TD Securities, which is 500 to 550 million, as a kind of earnings power, we think that earnings
power is still there, when we looked at underlying, what is actually going on.
We look at Banknorth and other than the impact of Hudson United, I dont see I think were
looking at a pretty flat growth potential. There will be some increases in earnings per share
because theyre scheduled to buy back some of their shares, and that will give them a lift on an
earnings per share basis, but the fundamental dynamics in U.S. banking arent producing earnings
growth.
Then when we look at Waterhouse and Ameritrade, youll be seeing the public results for Ameritrade
and now the public results for Waterhouse USA. Clearly, both of them had very good fourth quarters.
So I think we are reasonably optimistic that the kind of numbers that were looking for next year
are probably slightly better than the kind of numbers we originally proposed.
But we havent they are still in the process of working through the details of the plan, and
life has taught you that until you get to the last number, getting excited about the first 80% of
the numbers isnt probably a good idea. And I think Joe Moglia is scheduled has said to his
shareholders is when we close, we will then give you an updated version of what the outlook is, and
at that point, then I think youll be able to we will do a follow-on call that sort of says
heres the impact for us.
How all that adds up I guess the other segment that I know it causes you angst I can tell
you it causes me angst, too, but I cant do anything about it, is other, and which we get these
numbers bouncing around here every quarter. Unfortunately, the tax courts dont report to me. So
they put out their decisions when they put them out. What we have been trying to do on the other
side is just be open with you and display them the numbers as openly as we can, but there is a
volatility in that number that is hard to were just not able to predict.
Unidentified Audience Member
You did get the operating leverage out of the domestic business outside of wholesale, and I wonder
if Bob could maybe talk about whether we could get perhaps 3% GAAP between operating revenue growth
and expenses in 2006. And I want to get back to Tim on just (multiple speakers)
Ed
Clark Toronto Dominion Bank CEO
I really like the way you guys ask all the right questions here.
Bob Dorrance Chairman & CEO, TD Securities
Wed like to have a year without restructuring to look at what those underlying trends are. I
do think that there is a that we are, as Ed said, were finished with the major strategic
restructuring in the business. So I think as you look at what our revenue expenses will be in 2006,
and on a go-forward basis, I think that those are the paradigms on which we are operating.
I think the other paradigm that we are operating under is the return on invested capital. So we
dont see, given our strategy on a go-forward basis that we are going to have double-digit revenue
growth. And so you will always be fighting costs and trying to keep your business profitable and
then ensuring that the return on the capital that you have invested in that business is truly a
sustainable 20% over time with no accidents in the future. So I think that is the metric that we
want.
Unidentified Audience Member
I will circle back with you later. Tim, I just want to chat briefly about the personal lending
market share, and I will give it up. I know theres a number of initiatives underway with respect
to turning around unsecured line of credit. And there has been a shuffle in terms of management on
the credit card side. But this was a bit of a surprise to me in terms of the amount of loss, and is
that going to level off in the next quarter or so, or will the initiatives that weve talked about
the past start to (multiple speakers)
Tim Hockey Co-Chair, TD Canada Trust
There is a significant downgrade, as you can see in the fourth quarter, from what we have
experienced a lessening trend, if you will, in our market share loss. There is probably four
reasons for it. The first one is there is a few basis points worth of noise in there it seems that
had to do with the securitization. We cant quite quantify it. But that is probably a little larger
than it should be as result of that the loss, I should say.
The other reason, if you divide it between the decisions we have made about pulling back from the
unsecured lending and the less profitable lending growth over the last few years, so that is still
impacting us. Remember these market share numbers are only up until August, so some of the market
share
some of the growth that we are seeing in the more recent months, the last two months of the
quarter, notably in credit cards, as Dan said, wont show up in these numbers yet. So we have some
hope.
Theres another item that I dont believe we have disclosed yet, which is a portfolio that we had
that we were managing on behalf of the Insurance Company of British Columbia. We essentially
underwrote their insurance premiums in BC. They have in-sourced that business, for lack of a better
term, and that is now running off to the tune of about $100 million of volumes a month. And so that
is rapidly moving through the book and that is causing us a few basis point of loss.
So those are some of the puts and takes which conspired against us in the quarter. But the one that
we were a little disappointed in, I would say, is our real estate secured lending, and that is
something that were still quite confident in our initiatives notably new branches, branch
capacity, increasing our mortgage salesforce will pay off. But it is an industry that has been
growing at a torrid pace, and we have been doing well with 10% growth, but just not keeping pace
over the last quarter.
Michael Goldberg Desjardins Securities Analyst
Michael Goldberg, Desjardins Securities. Ed, it sounded like there may be some kind of technical
reason for taking the tax charge related to the Waterhouse restructuring this quarter, while you
get the gain on dilution next quarter. Can you explain what is behind that?
Tim Hockey Co-Chair, TD Canada Trust
We had a corporate structure that needed to be changed prior to the deal closing. So there were
reasons which are really not germane, I dont think. There were reasons in doing that restructuring
prior to close. So we decided that we would do that in the fourth quarter. The timing of the actual
close is still a little uncertain and it was even more uncertain when we did the original
restructuring. So I think just suffice to say that if this had been done in the first quarter, it
simply would have been net against the gain.
Michael Goldberg Desjardins Securities Analyst
Another question I got the impression that
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
It was a shareholder-friendly move just doesnt have. It was a shareholder-friendly move. It
just was a kind of IR nightmare. Obviously, we would like to have it happen in the same time. But
it was better for the shareholders to have different times, and were more worried about the
shareholders than we are whether it looks nice.
Michael Goldberg Desjardins Securities Analyst
Also, I had a question about the trend in variable comp. It sounded like there was some accrual
adjustments either this quarter or last quarter, but I just wasnt clear on what was actually
happening.
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
I think as this is really it really only pertains to TD Securities, where as you know youre
running through the year and youre trying to figure out and make sure that you have sufficient
accruals to cover what you
see the compensation for the year, but not excessive accruals. And so we made what we thought was
the right judgment of the accrual rate in the third quarter. As it happened in the previous year,
we made that adjustment in the fourth quarter. So it makes the fourth quarter this year over the
fourth quarter of last year not quite comparable, because you can see that on the expense line for
TD Securities, youve got a dip in the third quarter and then up.
And then I think what Dan has said is there also were some other costs that occurred in the fourth
quarter that may not always be repeatable. So you probably are better to look at what has happened
to the average of the expenses over the year than to watch too much the noise from quarter to
quarter, just because were not perfect at timing these things or getting these right, and we
fine-tune them as we go through the year.
Michael Goldberg Desjardins Securities Analyst
Finally, Ed, you said that the U.S. banking environment is creating potential acquisition
opportunities. And I wonder if you mean by this that asking prices are getting more realistic, and
if so, what is the visibility of this improved environment actually resulting in any other
transactions?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think that is the good question. I think theres no question that the environment is putting
pressure on a whole set of operators. And so the question is how do they respond to that pressure.
And so we are obviously in the camp of hoping that they get kind of realistic about what their
prices should be, in light of that pressure. But sometimes people just say, well, Im going to
hunker down and try to drive this out, or yes, Im happy to be taken out, but I want to be taken
out by last year kind of price image versus where I think realistically prices are today.
So I dont know that this has all played itself out, but theres no question I think the market is
vibrant right now everyone trying to work through what is going to be their reaction to what
they see as a pretty tough 2006. And so I think that is I guess my gut is saying that is not all
bad from our point of view. We are a little better-positioned from an interest rate point of view,
so we are in a strong capital position.
So this is a relatively positive we wanted an environment which was good for follow-on
acquisitions. This is pretty good. But we could find that everyone just still says Im not changing
my price, even if my earnings have come down. And then that wont necessarily produce a great
opportunity for us.
Unidentified Audience Member
I have a question for Bob. Bob, youre doing a great job in helping the bank shift its earnings
towards stable retail businesses. I guess it is tough to look at these numbers and understand some
of the changes that are going on, particularly in the trading line. Even if I added back the 107
million, I think your trading revenues were 187 million in the quarter. When I look back over the
last two years, it has ranged anywhere from $0.5 billion to 200 million. You have reduced market
risk. Do you have any sense of what is a normal number in trading? It the volatility really 200
million a quarter, and you dont know, or is it 50 million?
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
I think probably the latter. I think obviously the charges or the quote, unquote trading losses,
both realized and evaluation are changed to the value of the portfolio are running through in the
latter half of the year.
And at the same time, while we are exiting these businesses, we are also disrupting what is really
going on in the derivative businesses overall in the latter half of the year.
It is not like these businesses dont sit within the overall business. So I think we had a
particularly poor second half in general on the trading side, and I think partly that was the exit
costs, and part of it was disruption to what our regular business is. And part of it was a
difficult trading a more difficult trading environment in some of the markets.
I think youll see that stabilize in 06. I think youll get a much better read on what our run
rate is in trading revenue, and I think that the variability around the average per quarter will
reduce, absent any other charges that we might recognize in the business on the non-core types of
businesses. In other words, I think our core trading revenues are still reasonably robust. I think
youll see less volatility in 06 and beyond. And I think we will be able to comment on what the
real trend is at that point in time.
Unidentified Audience Member
It looks as if the problem I presume the 107 was all in the I think you said it was the
credit and interest rate restructuring this quarter. So was it the equity the equity portfolios
have had two quarters of successive losses here. Is it something specific in the equity business?
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
No, the equity portfolio has had two successive quarters. That has been the exit of the structured
equity businesses. We have also in fourth quarter made a valuation adjustment on the interest rate
structured product portfolio. So that is where you would see that going through.
Unidentified Audience Member
Are those both in the 107 number?
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
Yes. So on credit, there was no restructuring charges. That is not in the 107. So credit the
structured credit portfolio is effectively provided for and is running off. The credit business in
the fourth quarter on its own had a difficult quarter, as it did in the third quarter.
So in our credit trading businesses, we had a very strong first half and a weaker second half,
which has typically been the pattern in the business, but it was somewhat accentuated this year. In
the interest rate business on the trading side in the fourth quarter, we had a change in value in
the portfolio that is part of the 107. And then on the equity front, for the last two quarters,
those have been the restructuring charges, actually exiting the business. So we are out of equity.
So as you look into 06, there will be basically structured credits, structured equity are done.
Structured interest rates have been provided for, and I think youll see a more stable trading
number coming out of the balance of the underlying residual businesses.
Unidentified Audience Member
I think, Ed, you said that 500 to 550 is still the number youre comfortable with. With 2.4 billion
of capital, that is towards the higher end of your target range. I sort of think of it as 15 to 22
as your range. So I mean you still think the high end of that is achievable?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
It appears to be. Again, if you ask me, Im struck Im surprised that it frankly, that we can
do that well. But as we have worked our way through these businesses and we are pretty tough-minded
about getting out of stuff that has low rates of return, the thing that we have always worried
about, right, if you go back three years, is can we keep doing this and then somehow not affect the
whole, I think is the challenge that we have been working on.
I think the terrific thing is that when we actually look and break these businesses down, our
domestic franchise has been on fire. We have really done remarkably well in growing our domestic
franchise. And we have been able to efficiently use our balance sheet and our capital to support
that business.
I think the biggest risk to that number would be a change in the credit environment, where you
if you have to pay to play, you have to hold more. And so therefore, the capital number starts to
move up. I think it is less that these revenue numbers that are underlying are not sustainable. It
is that suddenly, at this point, we have been incredibly capital-efficient in running this
business, because we can write off a lot of risk, and yet step up to the plate with big
underwritings, and then in the end, the market is so hungry for yield that we dont end up holding
it.
So I think that would be right now, if you asked us looking forward what would be the biggest
risk. I think the other thing, as Bob said, certainly we did find the second half theres a
limited number of people in any one of these businesses, and they have been distracted getting out
of the things that we wanted to get out of. We are assuming that theyre going to get back to work
and make us money, but I think we will assume that they will do that.
Unidentified Audience Member
Did I hear correctly, Ed, you mentioned something about positioned positively for spreads blowing
out.
Did I misinterpret what you said? The other way around. I didnt understand what your comment
was.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Yes, what I said is in a relative sense, if you take a look at our competitors and their wholesale
balance sheets, I would much rather my wholesale balance sheet, if we have a credit downturn. I
think one of the things that I think were paying for credit protection every quarter. So we
clearly paid an earnings price to position our dealer, and so far, you would say that is a stupid
bet to have made, because the market continues to say, there will never be a credit cycle and these
spreads are incredibly narrow.
As you know, my view is that is not a stupid bet over the long run. And were trying to run a
dealer a different dealer, a dealer that as Bob says focus on economic profit, and focused on
removing the accident, because from our point of view, given the enormous strengths of our overall
retail franchise, we believe that the extra value that you could earn by going out the tail isnt
worth what it does to our long-term PE if every once in a while you have little accidents.
And when you come to things like talk to Bernie about reinsurance, is why we have a very
different view with the reinsurance business, because those are real dollars. You get paid for them
to take that risk, and then you get these little accident every once in a while. And I think from
our PE strategy, that is not a good strategy.
So that is what were really making. But we are clearly right now not being compensated for
removing that risk. In fact, were paying a price for removing that risk.
Unidentified Audience Member
And to follow up on slide 24, this may be for Bharat or Bob, maybe looking at the mix of
non-investment-grade and investment-grade in the corporate lending portfolio, it is slightly edged
back towards non-investment-grade. Your credit protection looks like it has edged down a bit,
though, in quarter. And the cost cutter protection stayed the same. Im just wondering if you can
help me walk through is credit protection cost heading up a little bit in quarter with all the
noise, or are you letting a bit go? Just comment there.
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
What we have been doing during the year is trying to reposition our credit protection portfolio
more towards non-investment-grade, where we can so what you end up with, for the same amount of
dollars, you can buy less credit protection on non-investment-grade. But that is where we want to
be. So youll see a change of portfolio, and then the there has been some runoff as well, just
some natural runoff.
Unidentified Audience Member
The other quick question is non-core recoveries in the quarter comment a bit about whether
we have worked through most of that, or is there anything left there?
Bharat Masrani Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Financial group
Yes, we have. Non-core is a non-event now for the bank. Theres hardly anything left there to
really speak of.
Unidentified Audience Member
Could I ask one more quick question, if I may, of Tim? Related to deposit growth, which looks
strong, especially in business, Im just looking for a couple of comments. One, on the retail side
specifically, I understand your core deposit growth actually is above the blended number Im seeing
here, I believe. I wonder if you could comment on what is happening with account growth and so on
there? Curious about trends.
Tim Hockey Toronto Dominion Bank Co-Chair, TD Canada Trust
Were thrilled with our account growth. Just to the basic checking account, we established a goal
this year of having about 3% growth, and assuming that population growth is less than 1%, that is a
it was a nice target to set. We did that last year. This year, we actually hit just south of 5%,
so we blew away our goal. And a relatively small portion of that was due to the iPod campaign. We
just think we fired on all cylinders consistent, strong growth numbers.
Unidentified Audience Member
Just back to you, Bob. Not to bludgeon this to death, but just on the trading revenues, how much I
guess did the credit derivative and equity derivative contribute in terms of in a reasonable
period, so lets say Q1 of 04, or pick another period where there wasnt getting out of the
business what kind of contribution did these two businesses make?
Bob Dorrance Toronto Dominion Bank Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
I dont know that were going to get into getting that specific on breaking the businesses down. I
dont think our peers do, but..
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Im not sure that we see I will get into trouble, then he can contradict me. Im not sure that
we see 2006 having trading revenues that are so different than they were in 2004 or 2003. I think
we think whether it is 1 billion or 1.1 billion, were in that territory as a kind of number. So we
think the anomaly is this year.
Bob Dorrance Chairman and CEO, TD Securities
There is the plan, and now we are held to it. No, I think that is no, I think that is probably a
reasonable explanation.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Why dont we get to the phones quickly here.
Unidentified Audience Member
Before we go there, can I
Ed Clark Toronto Dominion Bank CEO
Sorry. Quentin has one more question.
Quentin Broad, CIBC World Markets, Analyst
I will go back to the comp, because I dont quite understand the net income adjusted 03, 04, 05
clearly 05 is down from 04. So I would have actually have thought that accrual was in the
right direction in Q3 and didnt need to be reversed out in Q4. So I am perplexed a little as to
why it was so high relative to the performance.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think were pretty satisfied. I think the problem that we have is that we have a mix of
businesses. So we have a business, a domestic franchise that as I say that has been on fire and has
been on fire not in the lending business, but in the businesses that have lots of comp in them. And
then we have a set of derivative businesses, and within those derivative business we also have some
very good profitable derivative businesses. And then we have some things that we thought were, if
not unprofitable, not worth the risks that you were taking to get those profits.
And as you know, in this business, you tend to pay people to get you into businesses and you pay
them to get you out of them. So you cant really do a whole lot about the comp and the stuff that
doesnt do so well, but you want to get out of, and you certainly have to pay people who are
getting market share for you in the businesses that are earning lots of profits.
So in the end of the day, you dont get quite the kick in your compensation that you might have in
more conventional businesses that so Im happy that I would say the senior management team,
including myself, will obviously, with the Enron charge and with these restructuring charges,
obviously have their compensation affected by what happens.
Why dont we go to the phone.
Steve Cawley TD Newcrest Analyst
I hope that one of your last jobs wasnt putting together a big report for Ralph Goodall because of
the 5 PM call today on the trust subjects. So I hope you didnt waste your time.
On that, I would be interested to know lets just make an assumption that at 5 PM, and this
could be the wrong assumption, but lets make an assumption that he lowers the dividend tax rate.
Would you take a look at your payout ratio and say that maybe it is time to increase it?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think I wont comment on that. I think I can comment to say, of course I would look at it. But
if your implication of me looking at it, would I then necessarily make a change, I think youre
going to have to decide that. Obviously, Im aware of the impact.
I do think in the end, we are selling a slightly different story than our competitors. And as you
know, my view on the dividend rate is one that you move your dividends up in line with your view of
underlying earnings, and that well continue to do that. And two, that were prepared to reinvest
our capital in ways that we think ultimately will produce faster underlying earnings growth.
So Im not going to be sitting here saying, well, Im going to go into a dividend war with someone
who is running the strategy that says I am running a different strategy. I am running a strategy of
returning as much capital to my shareholders and being prepared to take a lower underlying growth
rate of that. I think that would be a mistake.
On the other hand, we did move our payout ratio up from 35 to 40 when it appeared that market
sentiment was clearly saying 35 was too low a number. And so if there was a major change and it
looked like we had an uncompetitive stance, tailor-made for our particular strategy, then we would
obviously take a look at it. Does that sound like I am Ralph Goodall, or?
Steve Cawley TD Newcrest Analyst
I guess one way to look at it, too, is that if this change does materialize, you could see Canadian
bank valuations again jump vis-a-vis the U.S. ones, which would make your stock currency even more
compelling to make acquisitions, and more accretive. So then my next question is I think I may
have asked this recently in a call, too when youre out there knocking on doors, did you get a
sense that the TD Bank currency could become more palatable to some of these takeout targets than
it was before in other words, do you think youll always need to use BNK stock as currency?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
That is a very good question. Maybe we should get TD Securities to help us out on an IR strategy in
the U.S. But I think our I guess our initial view today is that we are in a slightly different
position, not as favorable a position as lets say Manulife was, and it is making its acquisition
the distribution of the original shareholders of John Hancock are quite different than the
distribution of the shareholders that are holding the entities that are our targets.
And so we have had a number of the major holders of Banknorth who were very open with us and wanted
to hang onto our shares as long as they could, and they went probably to their limits of their
mandate in doing so. But they do have a mandate to run a portfolio that has certain
characteristics. And a 10th-largest market cap bank headquartered in North America doesnt fit any
of those characteristics.
And so I think that is a barrier to some of the shareholders and I think so I think we are going
to have to find a set of shareholders in the United States that like our growth story, because I
would say if you take a look at the TD Bank and took a look at the top 10 banks in North America by
market cap, what distinguishes us are two things growth and risk profile. So low risk profile,
high growth rate is clearly if you look at the numbers, we are quite in a different space. I
think we have to find investors in the United States that like that story. And they wont
necessarily be the people who are holding the shares of the targets that were going after.
Steve Cawley TD Newcrest Analyst
On Ameritrade, the stock has been on quite a roll, touched $24 today. Your $16 tender doesnt look
as interesting as it did at the time of the transaction. Can you talk about how you feel about not
owning another 7% of that company?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I guess I would make two comments. Ive never lost money making money. It is not a bad thing for us
that we have ended up getting a better currency. So I dont look at that as a bad thing. I think
our view is that it is hard to know where the stock price is going to be three months from now, and
we will deal with that issue when we get to the close, and then at that point, turn and address
what were going to do.
Steve Cawley TD Newcrest Analyst
One last one, a request would it be possible once the transaction gets done and all weve got is
domestic wealth, it would be nice to see a split-out between the Waterhouse domestic and the other.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Maybe if you get all the banks splitting out between personal, commercial and wealth, then we will
decide to disaggregate our wealth into different subgroups.
Steve Cawley TD Newcrest Analyst
Just a request.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Any other calls on the telephone?
Susan Cohen Dundee Securities Analyst
Could you perhaps give us an update on Enron and what your thoughts are there?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Enron we have no update on Enron.
Susan Cohen Dundee Securities Analyst
I will try one more high-profile name. GM. Clearly, that is something in the news these days.
Do you have any comments about how that, or any?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Why dont we have Bharat just talk generally about auto exposure.
Bharat Masrani Chief Risk Officer, TD Bank Financial Group
It will not be appropriate to comment on a specific name, obviously. We, like any other major
Canadian bank, would have exposure to the auto sector. We monitor that closely, like all the other
exposures we have. There is obvious weakness in that sector, but overall, from TDs perspective,
were not uncomfortable in the position were in.
Rob Wessel National Bank Financial Analyst
I have actually two quick ones. I will just ask a follow-up on Susans question, just more
pointedly with respect to Enron. Rather than ask for an update on anything, can you even just
disclose whether or not you have spoken to the plaintiffs?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think we would just as soon not comment on Enron. That is a topic that is probably better when
we have something to say, we will make sure we say it to the marketplace.
Rob Wessel National Bank Financial Analyst
Last question, second question. Given that TD Bank is fairly busy integrating or at least working
with three large acquisitions/transactions and knowing that the Hudson United transaction was quite
a bit larger than the traditional market cap of acquisitions that they had made previously, should
we conclude from that that TD Bank and Hudson United will take maybe a break from making
acquisitions for the next year or so as you sort of work on getting these ones executed and
generating some of the EPS accretions that the bank has forecast?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
What we have said is that were certainly taking a break until we close Hudson United. I think so
far, we have been quite pleased with what we have seen. There are some positive things coming out.
Theyre more positives than we thought. We seem to be on plan in terms of working for the actual
conversion.
But I dont think that were prepared to say that well step aside in 2006. I think if the right
opportunity came along in 2006, obviously it would whether it would close in 2006 might not
end up closing until 2007. But I think if the right acquisition came along in 2006, we would we
will be through the actual conversion of Hudson United by the summer. So I think at that point, we
would be capable of doing something additional, if we thought it was a good deal.
Rob Wessel National Bank Financial Analyst
Not to split this too fine, but is it and understanding that if a great asset came up, or
something that you thought was particularly strategically beneficial, leaving that aside to
something that seems very favorable, is it fair to say that the bank would prefer to take a break
from acquisitions for a while, or is it fair to say that once the systems integration from Hudson
United is complete, then the strategy continues on as it has?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think we are in the continue on as it has. I think we do have a we have taken a view that
over the next if you are not in this game over this next five years, it is going to be a lot
harder to get it in at the size of the thing that youre going to have the buyers are going to
get pretty big five years from now.
And so I think if reasonable acquisitions come in that fit, we have a pretty tight framework of
what we are interested in. As long as it fits in that tight framework, we think weve got the
organizational capacity and we have the capital to continue to do those kinds of deals, and so we
would do them.
Rob Wessel National Bank Financial Analyst
Okay, and just one more final question, then, with respect to that. Could a reasonable person
conclude, then, that Hudson United was roughly the size range that you would feel the most
comfortable with that, or should we assume or not rule out that Hudson United being somewhat larger
than what Banknorth had
done in the past, that as after Hudson United, you will feel more confident to maybe try even
moving up again on the size continuum?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I am really I cant really comment on that, to be honest with you. Our difficulty is, as you
know, because youve looked at this pretty closely, they come in all sorts of different sizes. And
so it really will depend what it is, and each of them pose quite different issues to us. And so
size is only one of the many factors. So I wouldnt want to be pinned down what our preference is.
Rafael Bello Citigroup Smith Barney Analyst
Ed, you alluded to the fact or the challenges, rather, of a flattening of the yield curve. Looking
ahead, and if you can share with us some of your strategic views, as of where are the businesses
where you expect to be making money or grow in under that scenario and assuming that you get a more
challenging credit environment?
I think that you also mentioned that certainly, the growth in the U.S. banking business is pretty
tough. So with those conditions and potentially you making more acquisitions in the U.S. market,
how do you take your what is your strategic view? Where is TD going to be making money going
forward?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I think the big difference from us and many of the traditional players is we dont see U.S. banking
as fundamentally a carry trade play. We think we can do the carry trade on our own balance sheet,
with our own treasury group if we want to do it, and we have chosen not to do it. So we dont need
to go into the United States to do the carry trade.
So we are fairly conventional old-style bankers that think what you do is you get business like
this, you improve your distribution, you add your net customers, you grow your commercial book.
That is the strategy we think in the case of Hudson United, that they were in great locations but
underinvested in their people and in their distribution system, and that if you do that, there is
still growth potential.
In fact, and what we have said before is the fact that other potential targets relied on the carry
trade as a source of income, that was a source of income that we never really wanted to pay any
money for, but they would want to put it into their price because they saw it as earnings. And when
we did our analysis, wed always take those earnings, back those earnings back out and try to
figure out how we would make money buying what we saw as our core earnings.
So that is why we think this is not an unfavorable environment, because the earnings were buying
in our view are the real earnings that we have always tried to buy. And we believe that you can buy
these entities and improve operations over time and run very good businesses.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
Actually, just to play devils advocate on that last point, Ed, I guess when you first stepped up
to the plate to buy Banknorth, it had at that time, back in August of 2004, it had a cumulative
or a CAGR of earnings growth of about 14%. And now youre looking forward and its got zero growth
in 06. So the question I guess is what do you see on the horizon to change this challenging
environment to suggest that you should continue throwing money into the U.S.?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
I dont want to be pinned that I am saying that Banknorth is zero. What I am saying is it is facing
a pretty tough environment to grow to real earnings. I guess I think thats the obviously that
is the business challenge that we have. You can take a look at that situation and say, eek, why
dont we wait until the U.S. because I dont believe that the current economic environment will
stay as it is forever in the United States, so I can look at that and say, why dont I wait this
out until these engines get back in and have more normal earnings growth? That would be one view.
The other view is why dont I now take advantage of the opportunities that, as I say, the trading
curve the carry trade has been eliminated, and make acquisitions and be prepared to tolerate
that I may have to go through a year or 18 months.
Anytime you manage a company, you are managing for the short run and you are managing for the long
run and youre trying to balance those two. So I dont think we have found that experience that
weve had with Banknorth has turned us off U.S. banking. Quite the contrary, we continue to believe
that we have a very good management team. They are managing to get growth in this hostile
environment. Not great, perhaps not as high a growth as they historically have had, but still
growth.
And so we believe that when we are going to get through the Hudson United, it will turn out that
that will be a very good acquisition and we will get more growth out of it than originally people
thought, because of the old-style operating things that you do to turn to franchises around. So
were not turned off by this environment.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
Is it fair to say, then, that given your view on the carry trade and your acquisitions going
forward, that if the yield curve were to steepen significantly from where we are today, that you
would not see an explosive sort of earnings growth profile coming out of your U.S. operations?
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
If the yield curve inverts, if that is what youre saying is that what you mean, or
steepens?
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
Steepens, sorry.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Well, I think if the yield curve steepens, we will benefit less from that steepening than those who
if they had successfully repositioned themselves many of them, all it will do is save them some
bad situation it depends whether it steepens with an upward movement in interest rates or a
downward movement. There are different ways this curve could steepen. I think if interest rates
moved up dramatically in the long end, that wouldnt generally be good for a lot of junior banks.
But if it were that we ran into a recession, and short rate trades went down, that would probably
benefit our targets more than it would us, given our position of our balance sheet. But Im not
smart enough to know where interest rates are going to move. And not the business, not the core
business were in is predicting interest rates.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
Thanks very much for that. One last question, if I may on the wealth management segment. Maybe this
is for Bill. You talked about can you talk about targets, actually, for next year in terms of
advisors and in what you see for or what kind of targets youre setting as well for assets under
administration. And have we seen and it looks like in this last quarter here a little bit of a
downtick. Im not sure if that is market-related or people-related I wonder if you can address
that?
Bill Hatanaka Chairman and CEO, TD Waterhouse
Sure, Id be happy to. Our goal for 2006 is to add net new 65 financial planners and 65 net new
investment advisors for a total of 130 net new client-facing advisors. Those goals will take us
over 500 advisors in both our financial planning and our investment advice arms, and well
demonstrate good progress there, I think.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
And do you have any sort of target for assets under admin?
Bill Hatanaka Chairman and CEO, TD Waterhouse
We would consider that a good growth rate for a very young organization would be 20% growth in
assets under administration year over year, but obviously that depends an awful lot on market
levels and market conditions.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
A lot of your competitors, I guess, are talking about very intense competition for these advisors.
How do you see the environment out there?
Bill Hatanaka Chairman and CEO, TD Waterhouse
Were very comfortable with the environment out there. Our strategy to acquire and to build our
advisory groups is basically to blend a good a new investment advisor program with competitive
recruiting of veterans. We expect that because we are a relatively small and a young organization
that our attrition will be far below industry norms as well. We expect that well be able to grow
in this current environment.
Darko Mihelic Blackmont Capital Analyst
Is there any pressure, do you think, on commission costs at TD Waterhouse here in Canada,
given E*Trades recent announcements?
Bill Hatanaka Chairman and CEO, TD Waterhouse
I think they have given the nature of the business, competitors do from time to time compete on
price. Our objective as an organization is to compete on a total value proposition, whereby it is a
combination of
price and service and client experience. I think that weve had an extremely rapid growth in our
asset base on our discount brokerage side in Canada year over year, which I think demonstrates
great confidence in our proposition.
We tend to tier our rates for our very active clients, and were in the process of getting ready to
roll out our active trader platform, which I think will actively set us up to segment our clientele
by active traders very appropriately.
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
Any other questions? I think we can call it a day. Thank you very much.