What Happened?
Shares of racing, gaming, and entertainment company Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) jumped 4.6% in the afternoon session after the company posted strong second-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations and announced a new share buyback program. The company reported record second-quarter revenue of $934.4 million and an all-time high adjusted EBITDA of $450.9 million, which surpassed analyst expectations. This strong performance was primarily driven by a record-breaking 151st Kentucky Derby that saw an all-time high for wagering. In addition to the strong earnings, the company's Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase program, replacing a prior authorization. Following the release, JMP Securities reiterated its Market Outperform rating and a $138 price target on the stock.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $112.03, up 2.6% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Churchill Downs’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 4 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock dropped 14.9% on the news that the company reported mixed first quarter 2025 results which included an EPS beat but revenue and EBITDA were inline. Revenue was up 9%, with both gaming and racing up around 10%. But TwinSpires, where customers place horse bets online, saw less action, which softened the overall results. Management maintained a steady tone, reaffirming confidence in its core businesses but pausing certain capital projects due to the economic backdrop. Zooming out, we think this was a decent quarter featuring some areas of strength but also some blemishes. The areas below expectations seem to be driving the move.
Churchill Downs is down 14.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $112.03 per share, it is trading 24% below its 52-week high of $147.45 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Churchill Downs’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,685.
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