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LUCK Q3 Deep Dive: Event Recovery, F&B Growth, and Strategic Acquisitions Shape Outlook

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Entertainment venue operator Lucky Strike (NYSE: LUCK) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 12.3% year on year to $292.3 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $1.29 billion at the midpoint came in 0.6% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.12 per share was 15.4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy LUCK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

Lucky Strike (LUCK) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $292.3 million vs analyst estimates of $282.9 million (12.3% year-on-year growth, 3.3% beat)
  • EPS (GAAP): -$0.12 vs analyst estimates of -$0.14 (15.4% beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $72.65 million vs analyst estimates of $70.99 million (24.9% margin, 2.3% beat)
  • The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $1.29 billion at the midpoint
  • EBITDA guidance for the full year is $395 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $390.3 million
  • Operating Margin: 9.7%, up from 5% in the same quarter last year
  • Same-Store Sales were flat year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
  • Market Capitalization: $1.13 billion

StockStory’s Take

Lucky Strike’s third quarter results reflected a mix of steady customer engagement and shifting business dynamics. Management attributed the period’s performance to ongoing strength in core walk-in retail and league bowling, which saw increased participation and food and beverage sales. CEO Thomas Shannon pointed to “encouraging momentum in our online booking funnel” and highlighted the impact of disciplined cost management and capital allocation. However, softness in corporate events bookings weighed on overall same-store sales, a trend the company believes is beginning to improve based on October results.

Looking ahead, Lucky Strike’s full-year guidance is grounded in several key themes: continued expansion of its rebranded venues, leveraging recent acquisitions, and increasing food and beverage attachment rates across its properties. Management expects growth from new marketing initiatives and ongoing menu innovation, with CFO Robert Lavan noting a strategic focus on driving free cash flow through operational efficiency. The company will prioritize organic growth and measured investment in its newly acquired assets, while closely monitoring the evolving corporate events landscape.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management emphasized that third quarter results were shaped by increased food and beverage attachment, ongoing rebranding efforts, and the integration of new entertainment venues.

  • Food and beverage momentum: Lucky Strike reported a double-digit increase in food sales, outpacing overall retail growth. Management cited menu innovation, targeted sales training, and bundled offerings like the Pizza and Pitcher combo as key drivers. The company saw sustained success in upselling to league bowlers, with five consecutive weeks of record food and beverage revenue in that segment.

  • Rebranding progress: The company accelerated its rebranding initiative, converting 74 locations to the Lucky Strike banner with a goal of reaching 100 by year-end and 200 by 2026. Management highlighted higher food and beverage attachment rates and improved customer experience at rebranded venues, with flagship locations like Times Square showing notable retail revenue gains.

  • Acquisition integration: Lucky Strike expanded its platform by acquiring two major water parks and several family entertainment centers, welcoming over one million annual guests. Management expects these assets to drive above-average returns, particularly as operational improvements and cross-promotions with existing locations take hold.

  • Corporate events recovery: While corporate event bookings were a headwind in the third quarter—especially in regions like California and Washington affected by tech sector layoffs—management reported a sharp rebound in October and is optimistic about further recovery during the holiday season.

  • Cost discipline and capital allocation: The company reduced capital expenditures and completed a major real estate purchase, acquiring land and buildings at 58 locations. Management also refinanced its debt, extending maturities and lowering future rent risk, aiming to enhance free cash flow and operational flexibility.

Drivers of Future Performance

Lucky Strike’s outlook is anchored in rebranding expansion, operational improvements, and measured growth in food and beverage, as well as integration of recent acquisitions.

  • Rebrand and marketing efficiency: Management expects continued gains as more venues shift to the Lucky Strike brand, which allows for more effective national marketing campaigns and improved customer experiences. Higher food and beverage attachment rates at rebranded locations are anticipated to support both revenue and margin growth.

  • Acquisition returns and cross-promotion: The newly acquired water parks and family entertainment centers are set to contribute meaningfully in the next summer season. Management outlined plans to leverage synergies between bowling and amusement park assets, introducing bundled passes and joint marketing to drive traffic across platforms.

  • Event and macro recovery risk: While early signs of recovery in the corporate events segment are promising, management acknowledged ongoing uncertainty in markets impacted by tech industry layoffs. The company is monitoring macroeconomic conditions and adjusting promotional strategies to maintain momentum, but recovery remains partially dependent on external trends.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Going forward, the StockStory team will track (1) the pace of additional Lucky Strike rebrand conversions and resulting changes in food and beverage sales, (2) operational and financial performance of the newly integrated water parks and family entertainment centers, and (3) sustained improvement in corporate events bookings, particularly in markets impacted by tech industry softness. Execution on marketing campaigns and further menu innovation will also be important indicators of momentum.

Lucky Strike currently trades at $8.07, in line with $8.07 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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