DaVita’s third quarter results drew a negative reaction from the market, as the company’s profit and margins fell short of analyst expectations despite meeting revenue forecasts. Management attributed the underperformance primarily to lower treatment volumes, which declined due to a combination of a severe flu season, the impact of Hurricane Helene, and disruptions from a cyber incident. CEO Javier Rodriguez highlighted ongoing cost management and continued investment in clinical innovation, but acknowledged that these headwinds weighed on the company’s operational results. As Rodriguez noted, “U.S. treatment volume was down approximately 1.5% year-over-year,” underscoring the pressures facing DaVita’s core dialysis business.
Is now the time to buy DVA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
DaVita (DVA) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.42 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.43 billion (4.8% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.51 vs analyst expectations of $3.17 (20.9% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $695 million vs analyst estimates of $750.6 million (20.3% margin, 7.4% miss)
- Management reiterated its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance of $10.75 at the midpoint
- Operating Margin: 14.8%, down from 16.4% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 1.5% year on year (0.6% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $8.47 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From DaVita’s Q3 Earnings Call
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Kevin Fischbeck (Bank of America) asked about the impact of discrete events on 2025 volume. CFO Joel Ackerman estimated a 75 to 100 basis point headwind, noting these factors should not recur next year.
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Andrew Mok (Barclays) inquired whether technology investments could boost treatment growth. CEO Javier Rodriguez explained that while new systems may help, any effect on volumes will likely be gradual and difficult to isolate.
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Albert Rice (UBS) questioned the variance between company results and consensus operating income. Ackerman clarified that differences in quarterly modeling, especially around day count and timing, contributed to the gap.
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Pito Chickering (Deutsche Bank) pressed for specific trends in new patient starts and mortality. Ackerman indicated admissions were stable, with mortality largely influenced by the recent flu season and no new trends emerging.
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Ryan Langston (TD Cowen) asked about payer mix changes and revenue cycle initiatives. Ackerman responded that commercial mix was slightly down quarter-over-quarter, and that ongoing automation and AI investments should support incremental improvements in collections.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, key areas to watch include signs of stabilization or improvement in U.S. dialysis treatment volumes, policy developments around federal premium tax credits and Medicare Advantage enrollment that could shift the payer mix, and measurable progress in efficiency gains from technology and operational initiatives. Additionally, the timing and recognition of revenue in the Integrated Kidney Care segment will remain a significant area of variability.
DaVita currently trades at $120.50, down from $126.50 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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