Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) insider Mike Spanos is buying shares. Mr. Spanos, COO at Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and Casey’s board member since 2022, has purchased shares twice since late December. His is the only activity in Q1 2025 and was sufficient in Q4 to offset the small amount of insider selling. The CEO, CMO, and CLO each sold small quantities of shares that align with share-based compensation trends, leaving total ownership at 0.55% at the end of March.
The purchases are significant because they highlight the buying opportunity the stock presents. Mr. Spanos already had skin in the game; he didn’t need to invest more unless there was a reason.
Casey’s is a must-own dividend growth stock whose price has trended steadily higher over time and is expected to sustain that trend. Reasons to believe the trend will continue include its position in the convenience store industry, its largely self-funded growth, cash flow, and capital returns.
Casey’s is the third-largest convenience store chain in the U.S., growing its footprint annually. The company’s growth is supported by acquisitions, an organic store count increase, and deepening penetration that promises to sustain growth for many years. Acquisitions like Fikes increase the footprint today and provide opportunities for business synergies and a platform for additional territory gains.
Analysts and Institutions Provide Tailwind for Casey’s Stock Price
The analysts and institutional trends include some mixed activity but are generally bullish and provide a tailwind for the stock price over time. Institutional activity shows them buying on balance yearly since 2022, with quarterly activity bullish in Q4 2024 and buying activity ramping in Q1 2025. The Q1 2025 institutional activity is a multi-year high, netting about $0.69 billion or 4.2% of the market cap with shares trading near $430.
InsiderTrades tracks 11 analysts with ratings and price targets less than 1 year old. Most issued revisions within the Q4 2024/Q1 2025 time frame indicate a Moderate Buy rating. The Moderate Buy is skewed to the Buy side because 73% of the ratings are Buy or higher, and the price target is trending higher. The consensus in early Q2 2025 is that CASY’s stock is fairly valued near $430, but all the 2025 revisions are in the high-end range. They forecast a fresh all-time high for CASY’s share price by the end of 2025.
Casey’s Capital Return and Balance Sheet Help Drive Stock Price Trends
Casey’s suspended its share repurchases in 2204 to prepare for the Fike’s acquisition. That prudent move helped the company sustain its fortress balance sheet and dividend health during the purchase, setting it up to resume repurchases in 2025. At the end of FQ3/CQ1 2025, the balance sheet highlights include increased liabilities and debt due to Fike’s acquisition, but it is offset by increased cash, receivables, inventory, current, and total assets. Total assets increased by 29.5% or roughly $1.873 billion, more than the liability gain, leaving equity up by 13.3%. Although debt is up significantly, it remains relatively low, with long-term debt running at 0.7X equity and total liability only 1.4X assets.
The technical price action in Casey’s stock is bullish at the start of CQ2 2024. The market is moving higher after confirming support at a critical level and aligning with the trend. The stock price will likely test resistance at the all-time high before the end of April and may increase to a new high soon after. Assuming institutions and analysts remain interested, the market could rally in that scenario and gain $50 to $100, or about 11% to 22%, within a few quarters of setting the new high. If not, Casey’s stock price could remain range-bound between $380 and $450 regardless of the insider buying.
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