Hourly Wage Growth for Small Business Workers Continues to Cool, Consistent with Overall Inflation Trend

Jobs index indicates the tight labor market for small businesses continues

According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, hourly earnings growth has slowed to 3.79% in September 2023, a pace not seen since September 2021 (3.77%). The Small Business Jobs Index — which measures the rate of small business job growth in the U.S. — shows 98.89 in September, a -0.21% change from August.

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According to the latest Paychex data, small businesses are adding workers at a sustained, modest rate. (Graphic: Business Wire)

“Wage inflation continues to cool, and the jobs index dips below 99 for September,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence. “These indicators are not precursors of a recession but instead indicate a tighter supply of available workers.”

“Our data indicates a continued stable macroeconomic environment for small businesses, which are adding workers at a sustained but modest rate,” said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. “Small businesses, like those represented in our Employment Watch, are managing their organizations in a tight labor market that’s being driven by a lack of worker supply rather than a lack of hiring demand. Employers facing this challenge may find it helpful to turn to trusted business partners like Paychex to help advise and educate them on how to effectively attract and retain talent in this environment.”

In further detail, the September report shows:

• As the post-pandemic surge has cooled, the rate of small business job growth has slowed in 16 of the last 19 months – from a record high 101.33 in February 2022 to 98.89 in September 2023. The current rate remains above the level seen just prior to the start of the pandemic.
• In line with hourly earnings growth, weekly earnings growth has steadily decreased since early 2023, standing at 3.44% in September.
• The West leads regional hourly earnings growth for the fourth-straight month and remains the only region above four percent (4.23%).
• West Coast metros San Diego (4.96%), Seattle (4.79%), and Riverside (4.45%) lead top U.S. metros in hourly earnings growth in September.
• North Carolina ranks first in small business employment growth among states with a slight uptick (0.07%) to 100.76 in September.
• Houston (102.06) ranks first among states for the 11th consecutive month and is two points higher than the next strongest metro. Miami (100.20) and Chicago (100.06) rank second and third among the nation’s top 20 metros, respectively.
• September marks the first month in more than two years that Leisure and Hospitality job growth (98.85) is slower than the national pace, but the sector continues to lead in hourly earnings growth (4.35%).

Paychex solutions reach 1 in 12 American private-sector employees, making the Small Business Employment Watch an industry benchmark. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients with fewer than 50 employees, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends, as well as examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity.

The complete results for September 2023, including interactive charts detailing all data, are available at www.paychex.com/watch. Highlights are available below.

September 2023 Paychex | IHS Markit

Small Business Employment Watch

National Jobs Index

• The national small business jobs index slowed for the sixth consecutive month, falling 0.21% to 98.89 in September.
• While still growing, the rate of small business job growth has slowed in 16 of the last 19 months, falling from the record high of 101.33 in February 2022 to 98.89 in September 2023.

National Wage Report

• Hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.79% in September 2023 marking a two-year low (September 2021: 3.77%).
• One-month annualized hourly earnings growth (2.94%) reached its lowest level since 2020.
• At 3.44% in September, weekly earnings growth has steadily decreased since early 2023. Likewise, weekly hours worked continue to trend down year-over-year (-0.41%).

Regional Jobs Index

• Despite slowing each month since February 2023, the South leads regional small business job growth for the 18^th consecutive month.
• At 98.39 in September, the Northeast continues to report the weakest small business employment growth among regions.

Regional Wage Report

• At 4.23%, the West leads regional hourly earnings growth for the fourth straight month and remains the only region above four percent.
• The Midwest ranks last among regions in both hourly earnings growth (3.75%) and weekly earnings growth (3.36%).
• While all regions had a positive one-month annualized weekly hours worked growth rate in September, the Northeast was the strongest by a wide margin (3.20%).

State Jobs Index

• North Carolina leads the pace of small business employment growth among states for 14 of the past 15 months, improving slightly (0.07%) to 100.76 in September.
• At 98.47 and ranked 15^th among states, Arizona’s jobs index has fallen more than two percent and ten spots during the past four months.
• Ranked last among states in September 2022, Wisconsin gained 2.48% during the past year to 100.06 in September 2023, fourth among states.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest states based on U.S. population.

State Wage Report

• Washington ranks first among states in hourly earnings growth (4.95%) but last in weekly hours worked growth (-1.14%) in September. Washington also has the second-highest hourly earnings ($36.31 per hour) and the lowest weekly hours worked (30.58 per week) among states.
• Ranked last among states since May, hourly earnings growth in Indiana has quickly slowed during the past year, from 6.03% in September 2022 to 2.45% in September 2023.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest states based on U.S. population.

Metropolitan Jobs Index

• Houston (102.06) ranks first among states for the 11^th consecutive month and is two points higher than the next strongest state.
• Besides Houston, Miami (100.20) and Chicago (100.06) are the only other metros above 100, though both slowed 0.62% in September.
• Denver (97.15) remains the weakest metro index for the third consecutive month and is the only metro index below 98.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest metro areas based on U.S. population.

Metropolitan Wage Report

• West Coast metros San Diego (4.96%), Seattle (4.79%), and Riverside (4.45%) lead metros in hourly earnings growth in September.
• Atlanta (2.38%) and San Francisco (2.50%) are the only metros with an hourly earnings growth rate below three percent. They are also the only two metros with weekly earnings growth below two percent.
• At 0.42%, Miami remains the only metro with positive weekly hours worked growth.

Note: Analysis is provided for the 20 largest metro areas based on U.S. population.

Industry Jobs Index

• Following a modest uptick in August, the pace of job growth in Leisure and Hospitality continued its deceleration in September falling 0.46% to 98.85. This marks the first month in more than two years that Leisure and Hospitality job growth (98.85) is slower than the national pace (98.89).
• Manufacturing fell 0.25% to 96.99 in September as the sector has been ranked last for the past 14 months.
• Though all sectors slowed in September, Construction (-0.05%) moderated only slightly to 99.22. The sector has been very steady, averaging 99.03 in 2021, 99.14 in 2022, and 99.30 through three quarters of 2023.

Note: Analysis is provided for seven major industry sectors. Definitions of each industry sector can be found here. The Other Services (except public administration) industry category includes religious, civic, and social organizations, as well as personal services, including automotive and household repair, salons, drycleaners, and other businesses.

Industry Wage Report

• Leisure and Hospitality leads sectors in hourly earnings growth (4.35%) despite consistent deceleration since 2022. The sector’s hourly earnings growth started 2022 at 10.95% and began 2023 at 6.59%.
• Due to decreasing growth in both hourly earnings and weekly hours worked, weekly earnings growth in Leisure and Hospitality has dropped from 8.26% in February 2023 to 3.64% in September 2023.
• Construction ranks second among sectors in hourly earnings growth (4.27%) and first in both weekly earnings growth (4.15%) and weekly hours worked growth (0.07%). Weekly hours worked growth in Construction has been positive for the past year and half.

Note: Analysis is provided for seven major industry sectors. Definitions of each industry sector can be found here. The Other Services (except public administration) industry category includes religious, civic, and social organizations, as well as personal services, including automotive and household repair, salons, drycleaners, and other businesses.

For more information about the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, visit www.paychex.com/watch and sign up to receive monthly Employment Watch alerts.

*Information regarding the professions included in the industry data can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

About the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch is released each month by Paychex, Inc., a leading provider of payroll, human resource, insurance, and benefits outsourcing solutions for small-to medium-sized businesses, and S&P Global Market Intelligence, a Division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which merged with IHS Markit in 2022 and is a provider of information services and solutions to global markets. Focused exclusively on small business, the monthly report offers analysis of national employment and wage trends, as well as examines regional, state, metro, and industry sector activity. Drawing from the payroll data of approximately 350,000 Paychex clients, this powerful tool delivers real-time insights into the small business trends driving the U.S. economy.

About Paychex

Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) is an industry-leading HCM company delivering a full suite of technology and advisory services in human resources, employee benefit solutions, insurance, and payroll. The company serves approximately 740,000 customers in the U.S. and Europe and pays one out of every 12 American private sector employees. The more than 16,000 people at Paychex are committed to helping businesses succeed and building thriving communities where they work and live. To learn more, visit paychex.com and stay connected on Twitter and LinkedIn.

About S&P Global Market Intelligence

At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction.

S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence.

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