Conference Call
Filed by Echostar Communications Corporation
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
and deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-12
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Companies: Hughes Electronics Corporation
Commission File No. 0-26035
General Motors Corporation
Commission File No. 1-00143
Date: March 4, 2002
The following is a transcript of the fourth-quarter and year-end earnings
call. Certain text contained within the
transcript has been bracketed because it was inaudible or for clarification
purposes.
In connection with the proposed transactions, General Motors Corporation (GM),
Hughes Electronics Corporation (Hughes) and EchoStar Communications
Corporation (EchoStar) intend to file relevant materials with the Securities
and Exchange Commission, including one or more Registration Statement(s) on Form
S-4 that contain a prospectus and proxy/consent solicitation statement. Because
those documents will contain important information, holders of GM $1-2/3 and GM
Class H common stock are urged to read them, if and when they become available.
When filed with the SEC, they will be available for free at the SECs website,
www.sec.gov, and GM stockholders will receive information at an appropriate time
on how to obtain transaction-related documents for free from GM. Such documents
are not currently available.
GM and its directors and executive officers, Hughes and certain of its officers,
and EchoStar and certain of its executive officers may be deemed to be
participants in GMs solicitation of proxies or consents from the holders of GM
$1-2/3 common stock and GM Class H common stock in connection with the proposed
transactions. Information regarding the participants and their interests in the
solicitation was filed pursuant to Rule 425 with the SEC by EchoStar on November
1, 2001 and by each of GM and Hughes on November 16, 2001. Investors may obtain
additional information regarding the interests of the participants by reading
the prospectus and proxy/consent solicitation statement if and when it becomes
available.
This communication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of
an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction
in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to
registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such
jurisdiction. No offering of securities shall be made except by means of a
prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933,
as amended.
Materials included in this document contain forward-looking statements within
the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such
forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and
other factors that could cause our actual results to be materially different
from historical results or from any future results expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements. The factors that could cause actual results of GM,
EchoStar, Hughes, or a combined EchoStar and Hughes to differ materially, many
of which are beyond the control of EchoStar, Hughes or GM include, but are not
limited to, the following: (1) the businesses of EchoStar and Hughes may not be
integrated successfully or such integration may be more difficult,
time-consuming or costly than expected; (2) expected benefits and synergies from
the combination may not be realized within the expected time frame or at all;
(3) revenues following the transaction may be lower than expected; (4) operating
costs, customer loss and business disruption including, without limitation,
difficulties in maintaining relationships with employees, customers, clients or
suppliers, may be greater than expected following the transaction; (5)
generating the incremental growth in the subscriber base of the combined company
may be more costly or difficult than expected; (6) the regulatory approvals
required for the transaction may not be obtained on the terms expected or on the
anticipated schedule; (7) the effects of legislative and regulatory changes; (8)
an inability to obtain certain retransmission consents; (9) an inability to
retain necessary authorizations from the FCC; (10) an increase in competition
from cable as a result of digital cable or otherwise, direct broadcast
satellite, other satellite system operators, and other providers of subscription
television services; (11) the introduction of new technologies and competitors
into the subscription television business; (12) changes in labor, programming,
equipment and capital costs; (13) future acquisitions, strategic partnership and
divestitures; (14) general business and economic conditions; and (15) other
risks described from time to time in periodic reports filed by EchoStar, Hughes
or GM with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You are urged to consider
statements that include the words may, will, would, could, should,
believes, estimates, projects, potential, expects, plans,
anticipates, intends, continues, forecast, designed, goal, or the
negative of those words or other comparable words to be uncertain and
forward-looking. This cautionary statement applies to all forward-looking
statements included in this document.
ECHOSTAR COMMUNICATIONS
Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Conference Call
Leader, Mike McDonald
Operator: |
Good afternoon. My name is Renita and I will be your conference facilitator. At
this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter and Year-End
Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any
background noise.
After
the speakers remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you
would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the
number one on your telephone keypad, and questions will be taken in the order
that they are received. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the
star, then the number two on your telephone keypad. Thank you. Mr. McDonnell,
you may begin your conference.
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Hello, and thank you for joining us. My name is Michael McDonnell, and Im the
Chief Financial Officer here at Echostar. I am joined today by Charlie Ergen,
our Chairman and CEO, David Moskowitz, our Senior Vice President and General
Counsel, and Jason Kaiser, our Treasurer.
Im
going to give you a quick recap of the financial performance for the quarter,
then Ill turn it over to Charlie for his comments. Then well open up
for some Q&A at the end. But before we get started, as most of you know, we
need to do our Safe Harbor disclosures, so for that I will turn it over to
David.
|
Mr. Moskowitz: |
Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. Just the ground rules - You know
we invite the media to participate in this call in a listen-only mode. And we
also ask that in your reports, you not identify participants and their firms and
their questions. We also require that there be no audiotaping of the conference
call.
|
|
All the statements that we make on this call, as well as those in our 10K and
other statements and press releases are all statements that we make from time to
time that are not statements that purport historical fact, but are
forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those forward-looking statements involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause our actual
results to be materially different from historical results, or from any future
results expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements. And I would
direct you to our 10K and other publicly filed documents for a list of the
factors that could cause our actual results to differ. And with that, Ill
turn it back over to Mike.
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Thanks, David. Lets take a look at the quarter. Well start with the total
company. Please note that all guidance figures for 2002 will not include the
effects of our planned merger with Hughes Electronics Corporation or its
majority owned subsidiary, Panamsat. In addition, all guidance figures assume
that the sluggish economy will continue throughout 2002.
Total revenue for the quarter was 1.15 billion, an increase of 13% over last
quarter, and 43% better than the same period a year ago. Revenue for the year
was 4 billion, an increase of 47% over 2000. Continued subscriber growth and
higher revenue per subscriber were the key drivers behind this increase. We
currently expect 2002 revenue to be approximately 20 to 25% higher than 2001
revenue.
Pre-marketing cash flow as 432 million, or 38% of revenue in the quarter. This
represents a $7 million improvement over Q3, and 129 million better year over
year. It is important to note that pre-marketing cash flow for the quarter is
net of a one-time $30 million arbitration charge which was recorded.
Pre-marketing cash flow for the year was approximately 1.6 billion or 40% of
revenue, an increase of 625 million over 2000. This increase is the result of
our larger subscriber base, higher revenue per subscriber, and increased
operational efficiencies. We currently expect pre-marketing cash flow to
approximate 40% of revenue during 2002.
|
|
EBITDA for the fourth quarter was 171 million, our best ever, as we continue to
lever the economies of scale inherent in the DBS platform. Thats an
improvement of 16 million over Q3, notwithstanding the effects of the $30
million arbitration charge. EBITDA for 2001 was approximately 511 million. We
posted significant positive EBITDA in all four quarters in 2001, and currently
expect 2002 EBITDA to be approximately 80 to 100% higher than 2001 EBITDA.
Operating income was 88 million, an increase of 13 million over last quarter.
Operating income for 2001 was 212 million. Net loss for the quarter was 43
million or nine cents per share. Included in this quarters results are the
costs associated with the $30 million arbitration charge, recorded net losses on
investments of approximately 27 million, and losses in equity method affiliates
of 14 million. Net loss for 2001 was 215 million, which includes a total of 175
million relating to arbitration, investments and equity method charges. Looking
ahead at 2002, we currently expect to have positive earnings for the year.
Now lets take a look at the Dish Network. Subscription TV revenues
increased 7% from the third quarter to 990 million. Despite the effects of an
economy which continues to struggle, we added 400,000 net new customers during
the fourth quarter, bringing our annual total to 1.57 million net additions. For
the year we captured approximately 57% of the incremental DBS market share. As
we recently announced, we currently have over seven million subscribers, and we
expect to end 2002 with over eight million subscribers.
Our average revenue per subscriber was approximately $49.69 per month, an
increase from last quarter of 42 cents, and an increase of $3.21 over Q4 of last
year. For the year, our R-PU(?) was $49.32, an increase of $3.99 over last year.
We currently expect R-PU to increase slightly during the year-end at December
31, 2002. For the quarter, our costs of acquiring subscribers averaged
approximately $371 per gross addition. This amount does not include equipment
costs capitalized under our Digital Home Plan. SAC for the year was $395. We
currently expect SAC to remain at similar levels to 2001 in 2002.
Turning to the balance sheet, at the end of the year we had cash and marketable
securities of approximately 2.95 billion, which
|
|
includes 122 million of cash reserved for satellite insurance. This balance also
includes approximately 700 million of cash related to the high yield offering
that we completed in December. It does not include the approximate 1.5 billion
increase in cash as a result of the equity investment made by the Vivendi in
January 2002.
We also had approximately 5.7 billion of debt as of December 31, 2001, which
includes two billion of convertible securities. On a straight debt per
subscriber basis, we ended the year at roughly $838 per subscriber. On a net
debt basis, that drops to $424 per sub, and further assuming conversion of the
convertible securities, net debt per sub would come in at approximately $131.
Cash capital expenditures in the quarter were 144 million, with about 32 million
of that amount going toward the construction of new satellites. For the year,
total capital expenditures were 637 million, with approximately 30% of that
amount going toward the construction of satellites, and approximately 70% going
toward capital equipment under our Digital Home Plan and general corporate
purposes. For 2002 we currently expect to make capital expenditures of between
500 to 750 million, with approximately 25% of that amount going toward satellite
construction, and approximately 75% of that amount going toward capitalized
equipment under the Digital Home Plan and general corporate purposes.
Thats everything on the numbers. So with that, let me turn it over to
Charlie for his comments.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Thanks, Michael. Just a couple of comments. In general I think that Im
pretty proud of what we were able to do in 2001 in terms of performance. We
really hit all the metrics that we wanted to internally and the guidance that
weve given you. Probably the only two that I wish we could have done a
little better on were sub count we were at the low end of our range that
we announced the first of the year the lower end of our range. And I wish
we could have done some of that I wish we could have done a little better
in churn, but obviously it affected the sub count to some degree. But we
expected the economy to be much more robust last year than it actually was. And
we fought and continue to fight piracy in our industry, which affects churn and
R-PU in a negative way. And those are factors that continued to hamper us last
year. But
|
|
we were able to focus on stay extremely focused on maintaining a very
solid balance sheet and growing our business, and getting improvements in our
business pretty much across the board, and at the same time, of course, get a
deal for a major acquisition. Thats really the focus for last year. Of
course, obviously, we dont worry about last year now, we worry about
2002.
Michael gave you some guidance there. I think in general we think 2002 is going
to be very similar to 2001. We do still see a sluggish economy. In fact, the
economy is going to be sluggish from the very start of the year, whereas in
2001, it was pretty robust the first quarter of the year. We still have piracy
out there as a major deterrent, both in the cable and satellite industry. As
people can get the channels for free, they dont subscribe to cable and
they dont subscribe to satellite when they can do that, so we still have
work to do there.
On the positive, we have seen more discipline in the satellite business. I think
both Pegasus and Direct TV have put more discipline in place in terms of making
sure that the customer has credit or a credit card to purchase the system. We
instituted that early last year. That obviously gets you a better subscriber
base, and that probably ultimately results in less churn than you otherwise
would have long-term, but it probably stunts your growth a little bit because
obviously there are customers that you dont sell to who might want your
system, but they just dont have the money to do it. So were glad to
see some discipline coming into the business. I think it still has a ways to go,
but were glad to see some of that discipline come into the business.
As far as a regulatory update with the merger, that is proceeding pretty much as
I would have expected. We just filed this week on Monday our FCC reply comment,
so that process, other than to continue to provide data to the FCC that they
request, is now in process. The FCC had given themselves six months. Their
self-imposed timeline was six months to act on the merger from the time we filed
back in October. So that would put us in the June timeframe for the FCC to act.
Now they may not make their self-imposed timeline but we have no indications
they wont at this point in time. The Justice Department we think will take
a little longer than that, and we continue to supply any information that they
have requested.
|
|
The political side of it is also a much less important piece of it, but
certainly one that gets the public eye, and certainly one that you guys read
about all the time. We had hearings in the House, we have hearings in the Senate
Judiciary Committee for next week. And again, I think that we have having
just spent some time in Washington, I think as we are able to explain the
benefits, the compelling efficiencies of our merger, we are getting support from
the political arena, and support from people who may not have understood what we
were doing, and maybe some support from people who had concerns before that now
realize what were doing is good for consumers, particularly rural America.
So I think that process is continuing. But at some point the political process
will end, and it will be up to the regulatory agencies. And again, we would hope
that by late summer, the regulators will have approved that merger.
We also have put ourselves in a very strong financial position. Something that
again I guess you guys know is were pretty conservative, and we had a
large bridge loan out there. We did a high yield offering in December. I think
it was $700 million. We did a Vivendi transaction for $1.5 billion of equity,
but also got a great partner that will help us moving forward on some technology
and content issues. We hated to sell stock at 26 bucks a share, but we certainly
didnt want to be in a position if the economy didnt pick back up and
money stayed tight, that we had a bridge out there that was too big, so we
decided to be conservative there. And Panamsat has become fully funded just
within the last week I think with a little over $2 billion of financing there
refinancing there, so that that company continues to be on very solid
financial footing.
So from a balance sheet perspective and a financial footing, were very
well prepared both to complete our acquisition of Hughes and Panamsat, and also
to look for opportunity in a marketplace where a telecommunications companies
are having some problems.
We
continue to see obviously competition in the marketplace. Digital Cable is
formidable threat now. Its not enough just to have digital and 500
channels. We have to continue to improve our services with new products and new
services. We think the merger actually allows us to do that more than anything
else.
|
|
[UNINTELLIGIBLE] must carry, a very tough, difficult task than January
1st, given their spot beam satellites werent launched. We have
now successfully, as of last week, successfully launched Echostar Seven.
Its still getting to its final geosynchronous orbit location. And testing,
it will be sometime in April before we know we have a fully functioning
satellite. But so far, the launch was successful and the satellite is performing
as planned to this date. Echostar Eight will launch sometime early summer, and
be operational probably by late summer.
Echostar Nine is a satellite that we hope to get up in the fall that has some KU
and KA band spectrum on it as well. The K band well use for testing so
that we can move forward in the broadband business. Probably thats been
our biggest disappointment as a company over the last couple of years. And that
broadband be a satellite today is not an economic model.
Youll notice that we have written down our Wild Blue investment to zero
throughout the year. That company still has an asset of a satellite, and still
has some assets we just dont see a business plan moving forward. So
weve been very conservative and written that asset down to zero.
Star Band, weve taken I think -
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Star Band, weve taken an aggregate of about 64 million in charges against the
100 million.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
We had a 100 million investment. Weve take $64 million in losses
there. Star Band recently got a going concern letter from their independent
auditors, which means that the auditors have some concerns about their ability
to continue as a going concern with not a lot of cash and heavy debt loads, and
the fact that the economic model is still at $70 a month, and $700 for equipment
is still not a number that you can make money on as a company, and not a number
that can create a lot of demand. So broadband is a disappointment. We have tough
decisions to make there as we move forward. Having said that, technically
were still a big believer that satellite can do it and do it efficiently.
We see the light at the end of the tunnel with the merger with Hughes, and
combining the engineering teams on some of the projects that Hughes has and some
of the projects that we have to move forward
|
|
and do that on a very competitive, economic model with another generation of
satellites, which is what it will take. And if the merger can be approved, then
were going to continue to invest in broadband. If for some reason the
merger wasnt approved, we have to reevaluate that and make the right
decision for our shareholders. As much as we might want to do broadband to rural
America, weve seen a lot of people drop out. Lockheed wrote off a billion
six. We just havent seen anybody successfully be able to move forward with
that project. And so again, we know how to do it. We think we can do it, but it
takes a combination of resources to do it.
On a legal front, we were happy that we finally settled our litigation on our
lawyers on the Newscorp side, even though that was more than we had hoped to
have to pay. And Gemstar is probably our next big legal case, which is coming up
with a decision by I think no later than March 21st. And again, we
dont have inside information as to how the judge will rule. Theres a
lot of complex issues there. But we believe that we did get a chance to present
our case. And while I think its a very traditionally uphill battle
for a defendant to win in these cases, certainly somebody wrote a good analyst
report that I think was pretty accurate, that talked about 80% of the time this
particular judge has ruled for plaintiff, and never ruled on a patent misuse
case for the plaintiffs favor. And that is an uphill battle. I think that
we did present compelling evidence in this case to win on those counts, but
well have to await a decision obviously to see. Again, its a
non-monetary court, and we believe that were well-positioned in regards to
the outcome. And with that, we will take questions.
|
Operator: |
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, if you would like to ask a
question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. And
if you are on a speaker phone, please pick up the handset before asking your
question. Please hold for your first question, sir. Your first question comes
from Jeff Walderfax of CIBC World Market.
|
Mr. Walderfax: |
Congratulations on a very nice quarter. Charlie, can you provide us with more
detail on your Radio Shack agreement, and what your expectations are for that
channel in 2002?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Radio Shack basically has signed an agreement to sell our product in all
their stores. Its unclear whether that will be a lease model or a hardware
sale product. They also will be carrying Direct TV products. So we expect
obviously weve never had a sale in Radio Shack so obviously any
sales will be incremental to our business. So were excited about that. We
dont expect to be in the stores until the May timeframe. And I guess
theres a lot of positives there. One is that we can move towards a
standardized product and get the merger better prepared quicker. We think that -
obviously its a new distribution outlet for us. It gives us in
addition to Sears, more nationwide destinations to send people, which gives us
some different avenues in advertising strategically that weve never had
before. They are strong in some markets that we havent been as strong in,
so I think we see all that as positive. And I think like any relationship, you
have to work that relationship, and if you have to start and see if you can work
together and focus on the consumer, and thats what well try to do,
but certainly a positive for our company. I think its a positive for our
merger since we view Radio Shack as a great retail partner with the merger as
well. And I think the other part of that is RCA, which is licensed to build our
product as well. And again, we view RCA as a great partner on the consumer
electronics side, on the set top box manufacturing. They do a great job of that.
Theyve been a real leader in this business for a long time. And then also
on the TV set. High definition television gives us a brand name in the consumer
electronics, and will be supporting our product going forward, and can most
easily standardize our merger into these products and other consumer
electronics. So I think those are all real big positives, but we dont have
any results yet. We have to go out and prove that in the marketplace. And I
think youll see the positive impact in the third and fourth quarter. I
dont think youll see anything in the first half of the year.
|
Mr. Walderfax: |
Fair enough. A quick question on cable networks. You dropped ESPN Classic. I
guess well find out if youre going to drop ABC Family next month. Can you
comment just in general about the cable networks aggressively raising their
affiliate fees? Do you see yourself, if youre able to, dropping any other cable
networks in the near term?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Well, I think our concern in general is that the big programmers, who have
networks because of the re-transmission leverage and their size, are able to
basically force pay television providers to
|
|
carry product that consumers dont see a value in, or we have to pay more
than the value the consumers see, and so thats a disappointment in terms
of that. But having said that, most of the products that we carry today, we
think consumers do see a value in. And where weve had a chance to sit down
and negotiate with programmers in an atmosphere thats not tied to a gun to
our head or any kind of threats or anything, we have I think historically always
been able to reach agreement with the particular programmers to something we
think is fair for our consumers, and at a price that we think is fair. And
were hopeful that well be able to do that in the future with Disney.
Its too bad that it takes sometimes relationships get rocky before
they get better get rockier before they get better, and hopefully
thats the case here. Our relationship got a little rocky, and hopefully
our relationship will get better. I think the trial decision date, just for the
injunction, is March 11th. That wont be the end of it no matter
what the judge says. If the judge says we can take the Family channel off, then
well look at that. If they say we cant but Im sure
Disney would continue to go to trial with a jury at some point and vice-versa.
If we for some reason were to lose that, we would go to trial. The judge is just
going to make a different ruling because its based on an injunction and
its not the dispositive in the case. So on the other hand, we hope that we
would be able to sit down with Disney and work it out for something that is good
for them and good for us as well. And I will say that weve had a much more
positive relationship with them in the last month than we had before because
theyve focused on the business as opposed to focusing on a merger.
|
Mr. Walderfax: |
Great. Thank you.
|
Operator: |
Your next question comes from William Kidd of Lehman Brothers.
|
Mr. Kidd: |
Good afternoon, Charlie. I guess given the fact that the cable landscape, as
well as the tighter content in broadcasters is changing, do you think its
becoming ever important for Echostar to get closer to content, kind of like you
took the step with Vivendi, and how do you envision that type of strategic
thinking in the future?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I guess in general I would hope that all the media concentration stuff
what I hope is were able to merge with Hughes and be a
|
|
big enough player that we can hold our own in that concentrated environment,
whether it be broadcasters combining, or cable and broadcasters combining, or
cable companies combining. If we can do that, I dont believe that our
strategy will be to move closer to the content providers. Rather, we want to be
a very independent pipeline for those broadcasters those content
providers so they know they get a fair shake with us. I think you run into
problems long-term when you start doing exclusive deals or you start doing deals
where you put your own content above somebody elses content because their
content might be better than your content ultimately, and the consumer may want
their content more than your own. And you start ultimately having a product that
gets weakened long-term to the consumer. So I would hope that the content
providers, whether it be the Disneys, or the Viacoms, or the
Newscorps, or the NBCs, or the Vivendis, all realize or
any independent person who wants to start a channel, would look at Echostar as
the place that they could get their channel on fairly priced and packaged for
consumers, and let consumers make a choice as to what they want to watch and
what they want to pay. And so we dont really have a strategy. Were
not opposed to taking a minority interest in a content provider on certain
occasions. I notice that Direct TV has done that with Hallmark, for example, if
that made some sense, but not to the extent that would influence our decision on
how we place it. And that may be a bad it may be a good stretch(?), but
time will tell. But my sense is that we do want to be a pipe to the home,
whether it be audio, video or data, and we want somebody else to produce the
content and charge us a fair price for it so we can go to consumers and charge
them a fair price.
|
Mr. Kidd: |
Well, with respect to Echostar Seven, I guess initially I had thought or thought
the company suggested a conference call or two ago that that was the local must
carry satellite. And based on the press release that described the launch of
that satellite, it seemed to have less of a local role than at least I
envisioned. And I am wondering has that satellites role been altered,
changed, and I guess to the extent that it hasnt, what is the role now?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
First of all, first and foremost, its a replacement for Echostar Four
which is a full conesbird(?) that obviously has some problems with the damaged
solar panel and some damaged transponders. So thats the first role that it
does. It does have a secondary role for
|
|
local local. For example, almost immediately, it will pick up Alaska and Hawaii,
and a couple of other markets that well be able to do on that beam. So it
will pick up two to five markets almost immediately with it. But its more
functional as a local local satellite when Echostar Eight is up so that we can
trade things around in outer space so its seamless to the customer.
The big problem we have with Echostar Seven is it goes to our 119 location where
we only have 21 frequencies, and that is where our core programming is being
broadcast from. So our core 200 channels come from the 119 slot. So if we turned
all the spot beams on, we would lose some of our core programming when we did
that. So we need Echostar Eight to go to the 110 location, put some local
programming there, move some of our core programming around between 110 and 119
so we can turn some of the 119 spots on. So it gets kind of complicated. We had
anticipated that the Echostar Eight satellite would be launched actually earlier
than the Echostar Seven satellite, so we would never have to face this problem,
but it is what it is. So its long-term role isnt really diminished
in terms of providing its local to local, but its difficult
to do it without Echostar Eight.
|
Mr. Kidd: |
I follow you. And last is a housekeeping question. Can I get gross ads for the
quarter for one? And then secondly, there seems to be a significant other
expense below the operating line, and if I could just get some color as to what
that was.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
We dont release our gross ads. I dont actually know what they are - probably
somebody here does. We dont release those, but, Michael, do you want to talk
about the below line expenses?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
William, your question is for the quarter, the below the line?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
In rough terms, youve got write-offs on securities of about 27 million,
both public and private companies there. And then youve got equity loss
pick-ups on our accounting for Star Band of about 14 million. That makes
up the bulk of it, and then youve probably got another miscellaneous
couple of million bucks.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Did you give the detail of - you might give him all the detail there. We
actually are - you guys will go through this, but obviously our operation
results were actually probably a little better than the press release indicates
because of the extraordinary items that we had. For example, we actually had
positive earnings if you take the -
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Right. And I think the point there would be that youve got a $43 million loss
for the quarter, but when you factor out the arbitration settlement, as well as
the Star Band pick-ups and then the security write-down.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
You go ahead and give him the detail then.
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Sure. Its about a $27 million write-off on securities which includes the Wild
Blue piece. And then youve got the Star Band pick-ups for 14 million, and then
youve got the arbitration settlement for 30. So if you add up those items, that
$57 million. You add that back to the $43 million loss, and youre at a positive
net income for the quarter of $14 million.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
So our core business is about a $14 million positive, but obviously we
havent been successful in broadband, and were disappointed in that.
We had much higher hopes for broadband, but it was a tough technical challenge
it is a tough technical challenge, and current generation satellites just
arent efficient, and we havent got the volume to get the hardware
costs down.
|
Mr. Kidd: |
It seems like youre winning the battles where it counts though. Thats whats
important. I appreciate it. Thanks, Charlie.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I was just going to say our core business is actually a bit stronger than you
would at first glance think from the press announcement. Okay?
|
Operator: |
Your next question comes from Ray Slinekofer of Thomas Wiesel Partners.
|
Mr. Slinekofer: |
I was just wondering if you could give us on a housekeeping item, the
capitalized portion of the SAC(?) on a per sub basis?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Yes. For the fourth quarter, our P&L SAC was $271. The capitalized P(?) if you
added that in would be another 115 for a total of 486.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
What was the dollar amount of SAC capitalized?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
For the quarter, it was a little under 80 million - it was 79 million.
|
Mr. Slinekofer: |
And then -
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Seventy-nine million capitalized. That was actually down a little bit from the
third quarter, correct?
|
Mr. Slinekofer: |
And then on the 30 million for the arbitration ruling, could you just refresh my
memory what that was related to?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
In our Newscorp litigation, when they breached our agreement, our lawyers worked
on a contingency. And from a contractual perspective, we expected it to be about
$10 million which we reserved. The arbitration ruling came in at 40 million.
They asked for I think $110 million at trial. As happens many times in
arbitration, the baby(?) got split a little bit, came in at $40 million, which
we pay over four years.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
So we pay it over four years so its not a big cash hit, but we had to write-off
$30 million more at one time.
|
Mr. Slinekofer: |
And just finally, more of a big picture question. If something were to happen
where the merger didnt get approved, and you looked at the economics on
data and you decided that it just didnt make sense economically to kind of
go forward with that type of a product, can you compete with cable when
theyre out there and theyre offering data and theyre bundling
the products? And how do you see yourself being able to line up and compete with
sort of a bundled cable operator if you had only a video product?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I think thats a great question. I think that we would look to partner with
the phone companies who need video to compete with the cable operators, and we
would need the broadband product. And I think thats a direction
youll see us do anyway. I think that
|
|
some of that is going to happen anyway because the DSM model may be more
economical than the satellite broadband model certainly short-term it is
anyway. What we will give up is the ability to do high speed data in rural
America. That is not a place cable competes because they dont do high
speed access in rural America either, nor does the phone company. So we miss an
opportunity, but that market doesnt run away from us. Personally, I
desperately want to be able to do high speed access to everybody in America from
a personal point of view. But you cant sacrifice good, sound, financial
sense to do that if the numbers dont add up. And today the numbers
dont add up. In our opinion, the numbers dont add up for us to get
in the DSL business. We believe we need a partner there with people who already
have the infrastructure in place. And the numbers dont add up with current
generation satellites to do broadband unless we have a path to future
generations and critical mass that we would get with the merger.
|
Mr. Slinekofer: |
Thats great. Thanks, guys.
|
Operator: |
Your next question comes from Rob Camowitz of S.G. Cowan.
|
Mr. Camowitz: |
Hi. Good morning. Regarding the Gemstar litigation. In your thinking going
forward, how do you view what could be the worst case scenario for you, and how
should we view that in terms of thinking about that financially?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I guess the worst case scenario is the next conference call, youd be talking to
Henry and Pete instead of me.
|
Mr. Camowitz: |
I mean realistically.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
There isnt a realistic worst case scenario for this particular litigation
because theres not monetary damages at stake here.
|
Mr. Camowitz: |
But theres further litigation down the road.
|
Mr. Camowitz: |
Theres further litigation down the road.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I think the risk is obviously I think the risk in this litigation is that
we cant if for some reason we were realize that they filed I
think 78 patents against us. Weve got to win on all 78, which we think we
will. And then weve got the counterpart of misuse of patent, misuse
against them, which is again a tough burden to prove. But in this proceeding,
thats a much easier burden in a civil trial. So I think regardless of what
happens here, I think Gemstar has indicated that they will continue to litigate.
I think there comment is they will continue to smoke us out or whatever they are
going to do forever. Were certainly prepared for that. We certainly enjoy
the challenge if we think were right, and we do. And I think one
indication gives us a lot its public knowledge that the government
in this case the government sided with us on the patent misuse claim.
That doesnt mean the judge is going to side with us. But that gives us a
lot of confidence going forward to a jury that if the government if you
saw all the facts here, you would side with us in the patent misuse. That once
we get in front of a jury, that we would ultimately prevail there. Although we
think we have a good chance obviously with the judge in this case as well, and
historically the precedent would say thats a tough road for us. Let me put
it this way, Rob, I own approximately 250 million shares of Echostar. I
dont own any Gemstar. I didnt go out and buy any Gemstar shares. I
sat through the trial portions of the trial. I made my bet. Well
see.
|
Mr. Camowitz:
|
Okay. Thank you.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from April Borcas of UBS Warburg.
|
Mr. Borcas:
|
Yes, thank you. Its [UNINTELLIGIBLE] Borcas. Just three questions. One is on
the subscriber growth for 2002, the guidance you gave in the high teens. Could
you break out how you feel comfortable with that number given the slowing
economy in 2002, and whether that is appropriately conservative? And the second
question is what percentage of that guidance for subscribers is on the Digital
Home Plan?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
The guidance I think was to get to eight million subs. Is that high teens in
growth? And thats our best guess today. Its neither conservative nor
aggressive. Its based on all the factors. It is based on the fact that we
believe the economy will be sluggish, but we dont expect the recession all year
long - lets put it that way.
|
|
In terms of how much will be Digital Home Plan, again, we have never achieved
this, but we would like to get to about a 50% ratio of Digital Home Plan to
outright sales. Weve been below that and we havent gotten to that
level yet. We dont think well get to that level in we think
if we continue to increase Digital Home Plan, but it probably doesnt get
to that level in 2002. In fact, the fourth quarter I guess was probably less
percentage. It was only slightly down a little bit in the fourth quarter.
The I Like Nine promotion was more popular.
|
Mr. Borcas:
|
And just two more questions. On the Echostar broadband notes, you mentioned that
you would be able to drop those notes into EDBS in the first quarter. Is that
something that youre still contemplating, and could you talk about a time
frame? And then the last question is you mentioned in your opening remarks about
being able to take advantage of telecom related opportunities given your strong
liquidity and balance sheet. Could you just expound upon that? Thank you.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
Ill answer the first part of that. As of December 31st, based on cash flow
levels, etc., we are now required to actually drop the debt down from our
intermediate holding company to our operating company, and we are required to do
that as soon as practical. So we do expect to do that in the near term.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Is that in the next 30 days? Do we have to exchange offers? How does that work?
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
Were required to promptly do any exchange offer, and we plan to
file the documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission to do that in the
near term. So you should expect its reasonably likely that you
would see that on the balance sheet of Echostar DBS when we report our first
quarter results, but it really depends on how quickly the process moves through
the actually you will see it on there because from an accounting
perspective, were required. But whether its actually physically down
there depends on how quickly the SEC reviews the documents that we have to send
out to our bond holders.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
But it is going to happen.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
We look at opportunities in merger opportunities and acquisition opportunities
from time to time, but certainly if there was anything that we felt was
imminent, at the appropriate time wed tell everyone about it at the same
time.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I would answer it in a little different way in the sense that we have been
extremely conservative in how we run our business, and made sure that we really
focused on some financial fundamentals, and a balance sheet thats clean.
So if we have a satellite receiver on our balance sheet, its a digital new
generation satellite receiver, right? And we dont have any off balance
sheet partnerships. And we expense most of our costs up-front and so forth and
so on. So were extremely liquid and were extremely conservative and
strong on our balance sheet side. There are other people who may have good
businesses, but may have got into the hype and theyve got into some
practices that will hurt them. And were always when things are
going great and the economy is doing great, its pretty easy to look pretty
good. But when the economy slows down, the cream rises to the top. And while you
hate to see a weak economy, were well-positioned. And hopefully some of
our discipline will pay dividends for us.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from Ty Carmichael of First Boston.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Thank you. Congratulations on a great quarter and a great year. Just want to
follow-up on a couple of earlier questions. Charlie, you referenced the fact
that the Digital Home Plan was down on a relative basis to the purchase orders.
When you look at it into 02, do you anticipate putting orders or
promotions on the market that would not similar to the I Like
Nine in terms of economics, but similar to them in really trying to
encourage the purchase of the equipment?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Ill answer it this way. We think the discipline that is required in the
industry is you either get about $200 up front from a cash customer or
youve got to get a credit an obligation, the commitment from a
customer with a credit check, and the ability to collect from a customer if they
dont honor their obligation. You really have to do one of those two
things. What you cant do, in my opinion, is let people purchase the
equipment for $19.00 or $9.00 or whatever because theres a lot of
fundamental reasons why that ends up being a huge expense down the road.
Its a short-term benefit, but paying down the road. So we continue to look
at
|
|
we believe well have both offers where customers can get
equipment on a cash and carry basis, and we think well have offers where
customers can get equipment basically for free in our case, its a
$49.00 activation fee, and as long as they have credit and commitment, and the
ability for us to collect if they dont honor it. So those are the two
strategies that were pursuing, and both of them are successful in the
marketplace. And from time to time, one offer may be a little better than the
other, and it may move people more to cash and carry or more to Digital Home
Plan. And again, if we had our druthers about it, theyd be about 50/50.
But today, it gears more to cash and carry.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Are there any plans to extend the I Like Nine promotion?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No. It depends on what the cable guys are doing out there in terms of what we
react to, and watching to see from time to time what makes sense. But today -the
I Like Nine program I think ended the end of January.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
One of the major potential economic benefits of the lease plan is to go out and
get the boxes that have been the subscribers that have disconnected,
refurb them and then use them to get a new subscriber at a much cheaper cost. Is
there any evidence or experience that you can share with regard to your ability
to go out and get boxes what success you have had in going out and
getting boxes from customers that have signed up for the Digital Home Plan and
then subsequently disconnected the service, or is it still too early to have any
material
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I wouldnt say its too early. I guess theres a couple of
things. One is we have found that going out and getting the boxes is a
challenge, and we continue to get better and better and better at doing that.
Two, that based on the amount of boxes that we get today, we know that when we
go out and refurbish them and put them in to another customers, that is a
lower SAC model for us. And three, we dont have enough Digital Home boxes
out there for that to be material yet in terms of lowering SAC. But if you look
at the model down the road, one, two, three years down the road, it ultimately
factors that in it ultimately is a good model. It doesnt make sense
to sell a box for $49 and have the guy turn, when you can sell it for $49 and
get it back. Even if you got 1% of them back, youd still be better off. It
also is a deterrent to piracy.
|
|
When we own the box, we can monitor the piracy
issue much better than when we dont own the box.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Do you have a rough estimate on the percentage of the boxes that youve gotten
back from those customers that have turned?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I dont have the exact box stuff, but the vast majority of customers, we either
get the box back or get paid for the box by the customer.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Okay. And then just a couple more quick questions. Youve gotten into Radio
Shack. Should we expect to see similar agreements with Circuit City and Best Buy
prior to closing of the merger?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Jim DeFranco handles all of the distribution side, and I dont know where
those conversations are. I do know that within Best Buy, we are in their Music
Land stores. They acquired that company and then put us in those stores. So we
do have a relationship with Best Buy. I dont know whether theres any
plans in fact I dont know of any plans for Best Buy or Circuit City
to roll us out.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Okay. And then just quickly on the R-PU front, does the guidance anticipate any
further rate increases in 2002?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No, we wont - there will be no price - I dont believe - never say never I
guess, but I dont anticipate any price changes in 2002.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
And then lastly, Charlie, PBRs have been a big part of your future
strategy, and I was hoping that you could just provide a little bit of an update
on your thoughts on no penetration of PBRs within your subscriber base,
and how you look at that more specifically in 02. What type of numbers
would you hope to achieve in terms of gross shipments of the PBRs?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
We continue to be big believers in PBR. We think its a great product that
we can offer that we have an advantage over cable. And we kind of control our
own destiny since we have written our own software and developed our own product
there. So we dont give the economics away to somebody else. So we think we
have a good strategic advantage there. Having said that, it is a very difficult
product to explain to customers and sell customers because its a bit more
complicated. It appears to be more of a
|
|
word of mouth product or at least
economically a word of mouth product as opposed to hundreds of millions of
dollars of advertising campaigns. So we have more than anybody else. Our goal is
to be the first company to man(?) people with PBRs. We are not there yet.
And we believe theres some future enhancements that we need to do to the
product that I think we will probably show to the industry this summer that will
make it even more compelling, and it remains to be seen. I think everybody in
the PBR everybody thats ever used one, everybody thats in the
business cant understand why we havent been more successful with it.
But I think its just timing. Customers dont like complications. They
want easy and simple. And we have work to do there. But were very well
positioned. We think PBR is going to be a big, big product, and were well
positioned there. But it hasnt been as robust as we would have liked, nor
has it been for anybody else.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
And then just what type of interest have you seen from content companies looking
to develop a pay per view type of service using your install based of PBR
customers or do you expect that to -
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No, theres interest. And I think the first partner well work with is
Vivendi and Universal Studios for two reasons. One is obviously they have
an interest in our company today, but more importantly, they have some
technology they have technology and content that will allow us to do what
we need to do there. So were certainly having discussions with a number of
content providers, but Vivendi seems to be the farthest ahead with our engineers
in terms of how to more appropriately use PBR to enhance the consumer
experience.
|
Mr. Carmichael:
|
Thanks a lot. And again, congrats on a great year.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from B.J. Jayon of Morgan Stanley.
|
Mr. Jayon:
|
Good afternoon. Congratulations. The first number is on churn.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
B.J., we cannot hear you.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
Can you speak up really loud?
|
Mr. Jayon: |
The churn numbers in the fourth quarter looked to have improved substantially. I
can see the new promotion is working in your favor. But could you talk about
your disconnect policy which has been an issue with some cable companies. How
long do you keep somebody on before you disconnect them and the policy there.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I think thats a great question. B.J., our disconnect policy I dont believe has
changed since the day we started Echostar. So we disconnect very quickly. And we
havent changed that policy. First of all, we bill a month in advance. I believe
were the only satellite company that does that. Some cable companies do, some
cables dont. But we bill a month in advance, and then we give you something in
the neighborhood of 57 days - 58 days?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Something in the neighborhood of 58 days before we disconnect, which
would mean you would be 28 days late on your payment. So we have a risk of about
one month on a customer. Realize that we soft disconnect them prior to that,
about 15 days prior to that where they lose their signal, but theyre still
an active customer. Ninety-nine percent of those people pay their bill before
you ultimately have to hard disconnect them, but 58 days is the soft disconnect.
Fifty-eight days is soft disconnect, so whats hard disconnect?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Seventy-three.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Seventy-three days for a hard disconnect. So we have exposure of 43 days. That
hasnt changed, and that is probably safe to say the most aggressive disconnect
policy in this industry because obviously -
|
Mr. Jayon: |
Except for the CVRs. The 721 box I think was out in February. The storage
apability coming in [UNINTELLIGIBLE]. Your perspective to really have a
competitive or a viable VOD-type service. How do you sort of look at storage and
time, and how many will you be able to download, and how do you see that playing
out relative to the cable VOD?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
The long-term picture and this is not going to happen in 2002 or 2003,
but the long-term picture is that the TV experience is not going to be
whats on a 7:00 oclock or whats on at 7:30. Its just
going to be whats on. And youre going to come home and say, what
movie do I want to watch, and youre going to be able to start it and pause
it and replay it, fast forward it because its stored in your box. And
youre going to have the nightly news stored, and youre going to have
Seinfeld stored. Youre not ever going to go say, its 6:45 and
Ive got to wait until 7:00 for the show to start. The experience is going
to be youre going to get immediate gratification by sitting down at the TV
set and watching what you want to watch, and having control over what you do.
And thats where its going. And its just a question of time,
whether it takes one year, two years, or ten years to change peoples
habits to that kind of model. And satellite is uniquely positioned to do that,
vis-à-vis, cable or even the broadcasters. But having said that, the
marketplace is not ready for it. Were in a recession. The consumers
arent willing to spend for some more expensive products. Were not
going to force it down their throat. Were going to wait until the product
were going to continue to develop the product, continue to develop
the content relationships, and continue to improve the product so that when the
customers are ready, were ready. Thats not to say were not
were getting a fair number of customers on PBR today, but
theyre only getting a piece of the experience, not the whole thing.
|
Mr. Jayon: |
Two more quick questions. One, can you give us an update on whats going on with
the insurance industry and the satellites? And finally, with respect to the
merger related costs in 2002, how much should we sort of estimate in our
accounting, in our model, and how will that [UNINTELLIGIBLE]?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I didnt hear the first part of that question, B.J.
|
Mr. Jayon: |
Can you give us an update on your discussions with the insurance industry for
the satellites?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Okay. The insurance industry - we are self-insured basically. Do we have any
insurance on these satellites?
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
No, we are self-insured on all seven of our satellites today.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
All seven of our satellites, were self-insured. We expect to be
self-insured on Echostar Eight, and were still in litigation obviously
with the insurance community on Echostar Four which they havent paid us on
yet. So the insurance rates have gone so high since the losses in outer space
and September 11th that the economic model really is to self-insure
based on the health(?) checks of our satellites, and based on what we would have
to pay to insure them anyway. And obviously the insurance doesnt pay for
loss of business. But we realize what the successful launch of Echostar Seven,
we have back-up in outer space for all locations at this point. So we are better
than self-insured at this point. The other part, the 02 merger costs, we
dont have I dont know what we we had something in our
model. I dont know what it was.
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
Obviously, we indicated that none of the information in our 10K or in the
MD&A liquidity, capital resources takes into account the merger. We
will be filing, together with Hughes and G.M., an S4 information statement in
the middle of March, and that will give some pro forma financial information,
showing the companies on a combined basis and will talk in fairly significant
detail about the financial intricacies of the transaction, what will happen
post-transaction. Because as we say in the 10K, we were required by the
Hughes/G.M. contract to have at least a little over $7 billion for the merger,
and of that amount weve raised $700 million in December, another 1.5
billion with Vivendi in January. We had about 1.5 billion on our balance sheet.
And that leaves us with a continuing bridge amount of about 3.4 billion that we
expect to satisfy through a variety of financings between us and Hughes between
now and the closing of the merger. And thats enough to combine the
businesses, run the businesses. There will be a one-time charge when we combine
the businesses. We dont know how many employees will want to stay or
leave. We dont know what facilities we will keep or shut down. You have
duplicative resources that you will write-off if you dont need some of
them. So youll have a one-time charge there. And I dont know that
weve given direction on what that number is, but its a material
number, but not material in the scheme of a $50 billion business.
|
Mr. McDonnell: |
And weve also given disclosures with respect to our bridge commitments and
capitalized merger-related costs through the end of 2001 as well in our 10K.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
The merger is exciting. The Hughes guys we just did this week the
project or the last six or eight weeks with the engineering and marketing
and financial teams to be able to deliver local channels to every single market.
That was an exercise for me that was great because it gave me a lot of
confidence because, first of all, we had people from Hughes corporate, we had
people from Direct TV, people from Echostar all working together to really make
something thats very difficult happen in a very short period of time. Two,
I was really pleased to see that particularly the Direct TV folks and Eddie
[UNINTELLIGIBLE] take a lead role there and really manage that process in a way
that I thought was outstanding from a management perspective. And thats
the key for the merger, is how our teams work together and how we integrate
those two teams in terms of the culture. And those particular groups between our
companies have worked really well together and shown that in an eight-week
period, they can develop a compelling business plan, and achieve some very
highly technical innovations. And weve had a great relationship with
Panamsat in terms of working with them and their folks, both kind of indirectly
on their financing, and also strategic on where theyre going. So Im
very, very excited about it, and know that it wont be without some trials
and tribulations in terms of putting the companies together, but well be
the right company at the right time to compete once we get it together.
|
Mr. Jayon: |
Thanks, Charlie. Congratulations again.
|
Operator: |
Your next question comes from Joe Falderano of CIBC.
|
Mr. Falderano: |
My questions have been answered. Thank you.
|
Operator: |
Okay. Your next question comes from Mark Nobi of Merrill Lynch.
|
Mr. Nobi: |
Hi, guys, how are you?
|
Mr. Nobi: |
Just a couple of questions. Charlie, one thing you talked about I guess two
quarters ago was you said that Echostar is a leading indicator of how the
economy is doing from the standpoint you see if peoples services are going
down, from a bill standpoint, the
|
|
credit quality of the customer. Whats
your outlook from what youve seen now as a year has gone by since you made
that comment? Are things any better?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I would say in general I am not optimistic for 2002. Im not as optimistic
as Alan Greenspan was yesterday, lets put it that way. I think that there
continues to be we still see people downgrade their service. They may
downgrade their service from an R-PU, they may not buy as many premium channels.
Credit for new customers is tougher to come by. Again, this is from sitting on
airplanes and just general sense. The Enron thing is really concerned people
about whether management is telling the truth about their companies and their
financials, and I dont think that has been factored in for the whole year.
As an accountant by trade, you can make numbers say anything you want them to,
right? If we wanted to add 27 days to our churn before we disconnected people,
we would have no churn for a quarter. So youve got to be really careful
there about the psychological impact of that. And we stand at long lines in
airport screening everything. I dont know. Im just not that
optimistic even though I think the fundamental health of the country is probably
pretty good. So were expecting a sluggish year. And theres a time as
a management team we have to run really fast, and theres a time we can
kind of catch our breath. And I think 2002 is a time when our company is going
to catch its breath a little bit in our operations. Were going to build
some more call centers, were going to make sure that our books and our
people some of our people will have to step up as we get to this merger.
And our top management will be a little de-focused given that the merger takes
so much time in terms of strategically where were going, and obviously the
regulators and the political arena in terms of that. So I wish I could be in the
office everyday to help run the business, along with some of my senior people,
but we are doing that along with other projects on the merger that obviously
take, to some degree, in fairness, away from our ability to execute on all
cylinders. Were prepared. We have enough people to do it. And youve
got our guidance. Its really kind of a snap about the same as 2001.
And our net subs is a little bit less because obviously we have a bigger base to
turn off from.
|
Mr. Nobi: |
Let me ask it this way because I thought this was very interesting, too. If you
look at the fourth quarter information that you provided, you saw that total
subscriber acquisition costs with the
|
|
leased portion was down approximately $65
per new customer. Churn was down to about 1.5% per month, which is low relative
to where its been in the last couple of quarters. And then your R-PU
increases. If you look at other businesses lets even take a
wireless business. I dont know if they can say that these trends are
holding true, particularly in the economy that were in. So whats
happening this is a very good event. Im trying to get a better
understanding. Other than the marginal subscriber, you have to pay more for that
customer that wouldnt subscribe as much to the bills. So this is actually
a positive event for you and maybe for the industry. Im just trying to get
a better understanding where that sub is coming from urban, suburban,
who?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I think TV is a bit more immune than say a cell phone or something like that, so
I think were a little bit more immune - thats probably a positive. Our churn
on a seasonal basis, we expect it to come down on a seasonal basis, right? So
the fourth quarter usually is a little bit less. We expect the churn price to
peak in the summer, right?
|
Mr. Ergen: |
So the churn still is not as positive as I like it to be, even though it was
down. We expect it to be our lowest quarter. Its a gut feel more than
anything else. I kind of sense that last year in the second quarter it
just kind of plods along. It really hasnt changed much. And when it
changes, it changes pretty rapidly for us. And we have a great consistent
business, and we think its going to be consistent for 2002, but were
not trying to get people into the euphoria that 2002 is suddenly going to grow
at exponential rates when the economy and the consumer confidence is still
sluggish.
|
Mr. Nobi: |
One last question.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
I mean, its okay. Weve got plenty of things to do within our company to
continue to position ourselves to grow. And sometimes, you know, our customer
service can improve a little bit, and we can build our next set of call centers,
and we can get our billing system better. And some of our other management
talents can get new roles, and those are all good things that we havent had as
much time to do.
|
Mr. Nobi: |
Just one last question. Thanks for all this. Next week, what are you going to
present as far as information on the Echostar investor day? Maybe a prelude to
whats going to happen.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Exactly what you got today, except youll see us live and in person and be able
to play poker with us.
|
Mr. Ergen: |
Maybe theyll be some other questions that people have, but its essentially a
recap of this, and follow-up on the guidance that were giving for next year.
|
Operator: |
Your next question comes from John Stone of Ladingberg Feldman.
|
Mr. Stone: |
Good afternoon, and again, Ill join the accolades over a good quarter. One
quick housekeeping item. It sounded like from what you were discussing earlier,
in particular with the write-down in the going concern letter, that youve
got a lot of concern about Star Band. I wanted to confirm that you guys have
pretty much suspended development of the additional satellite that had been
proposed earlier.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No, weve got Echo Nine, which has got a KA band payload, so were
continuing development of both KU and KA type broadband. What were not
doing what were not at this point doing with analyzing the tunnel
is put hundreds of millions of dollars more into development without analyzing
the tunnel which the merger provides us.
|
Mr. Stone:
|
Would Echo Nine meet the conditions for you to get the enhanced equity position
in Star Band that had been discussed?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
It technically qualifies.
|
Mr. Stone:
|
Okay. And then shifting gears a little bit. Your equipment sales for Echostar
Technologies came in quite a bit higher than I had been expecting. And certainly
I Like Nine was probably part of
|
|
that. But I wondered to what extent it was
due to success in I Like Nine causing people to purchase more rather than
lease, and to what extent it was caused by a change in the mix of the equipment
that youre selling to higher end items.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Equipment sales the actual sales portion was I Like Nine was
a promotion that was more attractive to some customers than the lease. The lease
is more attractive if people own multiple boxes, and the I Like Nine
was more attractive to people who wanted one or two boxes. I thought maybe you
were referring to some of the hardware sales from our HTS subsidiary which were
probably higher. Mike, do you want to comment on that?
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
I think the people that we sell to are experiencing higher requests for multiple
receivers just like we are, so that the mix is changing.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Our major customer is in Canada, and theyre probably seeing - they saw some
increased demands [UNINTELLIGIBLE] customers, and they probably are seeing more
multiple receiver boxes as well. And that business typically is strong in the
fourth quarter. Its obviously typically weak in the first quarter in Canada.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
But just be clear that the I Like Nine thats not part of the direct to home -
that has nothing to do with the direct to home revenue increase.
|
Mr. Stone:
|
Okay. I got you there.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
The direct to home increases are set top boxes to other than Echostar. Mostly
thats Spain and Canada.
|
Mr. Stone:
|
Great. Thank you very much.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from Eric Eagle of Dressner, Klineworth,
[UNINTELLIGIBLE].
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Good quarter, guys. Being two-thirds of the way through the first quarter,
could you give us some indication of how I guess you are on your plan for net
ads and how churn looks?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I think youll see the first quarter be consistent with the guidance that
weve given you for the year. I think youll see that the first
quarter is tracking that guidance. On a seasonal basis, taking into
consideration all the seasonal factors and so forth, it will be tracking that
guidance right down the middle. And, of course, we announced today that we
passed the seven million subscriber mark during February, so that gives you some
indication, but we dont go beyond that in terms of giving you inter-period
guidance.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
All right. My next question is with regard to the Radio Shack distribution deal.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Can you speak up? Its very difficult to hear you.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Im sorry. My next question is with regard to the Radio Shack distribution deal.
Could one expect that if sales do really start to take off through that
distribution chain, could we expect SAC to increase?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No. We pretty much have one size fits all as a company in terms of how we
wholesale our product. So theres really nothing there that would increase SAC.
I guess if they went to the cash and carry model 100% and did not leases, I
guess in theory that would slightly impact your SAC, but not your SAC plus
capitalized equipment - it wouldnt increase that number.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Okay. Maybe Im reading a little too much into this, but in going through the K,
talking about with regards to Panamsat, theres some language in here that says
basically that if the Hughes merger is not complete, we may be required to
purchase Hughes interest I Panamsat, and may be required to pay a $600 million
termination fee to Hughes. Am I reading too much into the may word or is there
some potential loopholes? Could you expand on that?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Its not loopholes, but there are some circumstances where we wouldnt
be required to purchase Panamsat. Of course, everything is in the words because
required would seem to indicate that we dont like the idea of purchasing
it, when in fact we think that Panamsat is a great asset, and wed love to
have that as part of the Echostar family. But there are circumstances defined in
the agreement that weve got on file that you could take a look through
where we wouldnt have the right or requirement to purchase Hughes
interest in Panamsat, but theyre limited.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
Theyre not very likely, and theyre limited. And their lawyers are covering all
the bases.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Last question.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
[UNINTELLIGIBLE] Panamsat for all I know. All I know is I am very focused on the
fact that we are going to be owning 81% of Panamsat as a minimum, and very
focused on the Hughes merger as well.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Last question with regard to G&A. The $30 million arbitration expense, that was
in G&A for the quarter?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Thats correct.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
And the guidance that you have given with regards to G&A is basically in line
with the percentage of revenue going forward. Is that an indication that G&A
spends going forward is increasing?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Its not increasing as a percentage of the business, but we do
because we open call centers, for example, theyre less efficient when we
open them up. And the last half of the year, we had very efficient call centers.
Now were in a position with seven million subscribers, we need another one
at least. So that kind of factors in. I think in general, long-term
weve got the merger that were spending a significant amount of
G&A on. But long-term, if you look at years, as we put the companies
together, we will get G&A. Well continue to see improvements in
G&A as a percentage of sales. We just dont see a big improvement in
2002 because of the new call center and the merger costs, whether it be legal
and other expenses of that that wind up going to G&A.
|
Mr. Eagle:
|
Great. Thanks a lot, guys, a great quarter.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from Tony Genero of Investor Capital Management.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Actually this is Armand Mucci at Salomon, Smith, Barney. Congratulations on a
good quarter. First of all, I notice your subscriber acquisition costs came down
pretty dramatically. Can you give us an idea of where that came out of? Did it
come out of
|
|
equipment costs, payments to dealers? And do we expect that kind of
SAC going forward - Im talking about the capitalized and the expense portion of
the 486.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No, we expect SAC to be higher in 2002 than it was in the fourth quarter. We
were in a situation in the fourth quarter where based on what was going on
within the industry the cable and so forth, we didnt think it made
sense throwing a lot of money more money at it, so we played it pretty
conservative. We were pretty pleased to get 400,000 subs with that. The I
Like Nine promotion was fairly successful. Its funny about SAC. I
wouldnt read much into SAC in one particular quarter because, for example,
when you advertise, that increases your SAC, but you usually get the benefit
from it the next quarter. And if you dont advertise, it usually penalizes
you the next quarter. So youve really got to look at the trend overall.
And I think we did better than expected in the fourth quarter. We were a bit
more conservative. We know that were disadvantaged, vis-à-vis our
distribution path in the fourth quarter. The economy was a little bit sluggish.
So we kept some of our powder dry. I think what youll see in the 2002 year
is pretty equivalent to 2001, and that SAC will be higher than it was in the
fourth quarter of the year. Youre not going to continue to see
improvements there.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Okay. Obviously the cable companies are having kind of a tough time. Do you
expect them to get more aggressive over the next year in terms of buy-backs? How
do you expect them to react?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Well be watching it closely. The buy-back is a very poor economic model
for them. It means theyre getting back the disenfranchised customer. And
were finding that when those buy-back periods are over, these customers
want to come to satellite a lot. I think its a very poor financial model
for them. We will probably watch that, and if we see somebody doing something
stupid, well take advantage of it stupid financially
well take advantage of it. But, yes, I expect that where a cable company
might be experiencing some negative growth or something like, or close to
negative growth, they may have to get aggressive to keep their numbers up. But
that hurts them in the long run. You cant do that forever as Enron found
out. So youre better off running a good long-term business, making the
right long-term choices. Ultimately you want to get to a company thats a
free cash flow
|
|
business. Thats really where were focused as a
company. Weve done positive EBITDA now. Were on the path to positive
earnings, actually very, very close to positive earnings last year without the
extraordinary items. Theres clearly going to be positive earnings this
year. And then the next step is positive free cash flow so that we have a
business that is solid on solid economic fundamentals as opposed to accounting.
And thats where were focused. And primarily were focused there
because I own a lot of shares of Echostar and I want it to be worth something
five or ten years from now.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Finally, with respect to the Radio Shack agreement, I know you probably dont
want to give out exact numbers for competitive reasons, but from Radio Shacks
perspective, do they get more money from selling Echostar or selling Direct TV?
How does the economics compare for a Radio Shack dealer?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I dont know what they get. They get approximately what everybody else gets
when they sell our product. I dont know what they get when they sell
Direct TV. I think the one thing I might mention about Radio Shack, I believe
from the press reports that Radio Shack does not get anything when they sell in
a NRTC territory. So clearly that would be a place that they would most likely
sell our product for sure, but wed have an advantage. They get nothing for
an NRTC. Apparently NRTC didnt agree to pay them, at least according to
press reports. So I think Radio Shack will my personal opinion is Radio
Shack is going to be very successful in the satellite business. Theyre
going to sell a lot of dishes, and theyre going to be the first guys to
get to a more standardized set top box, and theyre going to have some
advantages in the business.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Let me put it another way. What percent of Radio Shacks DVS sales do you expect
in the next year?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
We dont have any idea. We just know were going to be in the stores, and we
know that it will be a learning experience for both of our companies, and that
were going to be committed to help them be a solid retailer just like weve got
solid - we dont take on a lot of retailers, but we try to do a good job with
the ones we have.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Okay. Thanks a lot, and congratulations on a really good quarter.
|
Operator:
|
Your next question comes from Robert Peck of Bear Stearns.
|
Mr. Peck:
|
Hi, its Bob Peck over at Bear Stearns. Charlie, I want to address the
programming contracts that you have, and how they would be affected if a merger
was completed. If the merger does go through lets pick something
like Viacom whose contract gets honored, and how do you eventually reach
those programming efficiencies that you talk about in your filings of lowering
programming costs. Wouldnt Viacom hold you to one of the current
contracts?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I dont know the answer to that. The contracts are I havent
read about their contracts, so I think that youre going to see in some
cases the Direct TV contract will be the one that is honored. In some cases
youll see an Echostar contract as the one thats being honored. In
some cases, you may see a renegotiation of both contracts that make sense for
the programmer and for us. In some cases you might see some customers on their
contract and some customers on our contract. So youve got really four
different possibilities that are out there. And having said that, long-term
obviously, if youve got 18 million subscribers, youre going to get a
better rate than if you have seven million subscribers or ten million
subscribers. We know as an industry, its a public fact that we pay more
for programming on average than the big cable companies. And we know that as we
get a bigger base, that we would have some opportunity to get on a more level
playing field. And thats going to be good for consumers because it allows
us to keep our rates down and be more competitive with the cable guys who are
paying less money. And that will take time. The transition is going to happen
over a couple of years would be my guess.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
You would be able to renegotiate those contracts, the current contracts, whether
they are yours or Direct TVs to expire first I would assume.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
No, the contracts may have change of control provisions and so forth and so on,
so I wouldnt necessarily say thats a given.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
I think a lot of programmers would like to maybe get to combine companies
together, get on a simple buy contract, make sure that they have carriage for a
longer period of time. And I think we would like to have weve got
really good relationships with the programmers. And again, where we have been
able to sit down with them, we have been able to get through complex contractual
negotiations typically outside the public eye. And weve had a half a dozen
disputes over the last six years, and we resolved all those except one at this
point. So hopefully well resolve that one as well.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
One last question. In reading through your opposition to the petitions to deny
the merger, you talk a lot, you spend a lot of time on the broadband and how
your current platforms really arent viable unless you put the two
companies together. Could you talk a little bit about why a platform like Space
Way may be viable versus say something like a Wild Blue or another KA platform?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
This is probably a better question for Jack Shaw at Hughes. Ill give you a
general answer only because Ive heard him articulate this. Space Way is
designed primarily as an extension of their enterprise business or their B-SAT
business, so thats the core. A lot of the engineering costs are going to
their core business in B-SAT, and which theyve got a very robust business.
We think that if we can get the volumes its chicken/egg, but if we
can get the volumes [UNINTELLIGIBLE] and beyond the enterprise business, and get
those lines in the millions, that those particular satellite designs can become
economical. Theyve got some mesh conductivity and some other things that
are advanced. I think its two issues. One, can you get the volume, and
two, the timing. At what point in time would something like a Space Way or KA
band be economical. Is that going to be in a years timeframe or ten years
timeframe? And we dont have all the answers to that because were not
as intimately involved in that as Hughes is. But there is maybe a light at the
end of the tunnel there, although its not without tremendous risk. And
that risk is somewhat lessened by the fact that they havent installed
[UNINTELLIGIBLE] base enterprise business that will use that new generation.
Astro Link, which is a similar design from Lockheed Martin and Liberty - those
guys have decided to I guess at this point basically to remain on that project,
and I think Lockheed wrote off a billion something dollars. So broadband is a
tough one. For Hughes and Echostar, were excited about doing it and making
it economical. And both
|
|
of our companies have done but particularly
Hughes, have done a great engineering task in the past. And I think Echostar has
done a pretty good job about making things economical, so were a pretty
good combination.
|
Mr. Mucci:
|
Thanks, Charlie. Great quarter.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
I think well take one more question.
|
Operator:
|
Your last question comes from Lucca Ippolito of [UNINTELLIGIBLE] Partners. Go
ahead with your question. (NO RESPONSE) Your next question comes from Robert
Burnsides of Lehman Brothers.
|
Mr. Burnsides:
|
Good morning. Charlie, could you just comment on the potential sunset of the
program access rules?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Another reason the merger is necessary is because obviously even if those
dont sunset, we still have things like in Philadelphia where we cant
get the sports teams. And we are concerned that with the recent legal rulings
that a cable company we could be in a situation where Comcast(?) AT&T
in Philadelphia can only own the sports teams exclusively, but own two of the
networks. And they dont have to under retrans. That would give us economic
retrans. So there are just a lot of things coming which is why the merger was
contemplated on both sides between Hughes and Echostar, that are going to be
tough for us to compete with without a merger. Program access we hope it
continues. I think its most important for new entrants into the
marketplace. I can think back to 1996 when we started our service, and without
program access, it would have been difficult for us. And nobody gives you
anything in this business. They fight you every step of the way, and program
access is probably a valid public policy, but we have to be prepared either way.
|
Mr. Burnsides:
|
Are you hopeful, optimistic that the program access rules will be extended or is
it something that worries you at three oclock in the morning?
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
Well, I dont think youre going to see a situation where programming access
sunsets and were not allowed to do our merger. I think if were allowed to do
our merger and it sunsets,
|
|
Ill probably feel like we have enough of a level
playing field to compete. I feel bad for new entrants in that situation, but I
just think its good public policy. Well see. Its not going to be our major
fight.
|
Mr. Burnsides:
|
Great quarter. Thank you very much.
|
Mr. Ergen:
|
All right. Thanks everybody.
|
Mr. McDonnell:
|
Yes, thanks for joining us and, Operator, wed like to conclude the call at this
time.
|
Operator:
|
Thank you for participating in todays fourth quarter and year-end earnings
conference call. You may now all disconnect. [END OF CONFERENCE CALL]
|